RE:RE:RE:RE:The Canary in the Gold MineHi Mack. Yes, the SPA board is The Place to discuss the future of the universe, everything!
Economic cycles last 15 years on more. Since 2008 the central banks have been in appeasement, and even before that with the Greenspan "put". The 2 horses of the charriot, the bond market and the equity market are running flat out simultaneously due to the hosing in of cash. An unpredented situation which cannot continue
Plus the covid-19 situation and the poor performance of the US government has led to a depreciation of the US $, and should this continue it will be a catylist for inflation.
Asset prices would be expected to deflate. Aggregate demand for international travel, hotels, business meetings, airlines, cruises are certain to be hit hard, meaning a deflationary impact. Oil prices similarly. However the rest of economy is likely to be supply-constrained leading to inflation. Keynes knew in 1940 that there would be full employment, and that's not the case here. So measures by him to haul in the money supply through taxation and forced saving will not work if people have few jobs. We will have to let the early 30"s model run for a few years until people have jobs. Asset prices will be falling for a few years.
And the 1930's decade started with the reckoning in 1929. Nothing repeats itself and there will be nuances on the way but I'm planning for a gigantic liquidity sqeeze which will hit suddenly.
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." R. Dornbusch. And the miners will be hit in the process, and the economy will have to reinvent itself to deal with the looming climate crisis.