PEA Numbers/ Valuations :Take 2 Thanks Sweepy for the analysis. your numbers are likely more accurate than mine which were at 1500 gold vs yours at 1725 gold
I will borrow your NPV at 1725 and rejig my estimates for some further discussion
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Colnic 675M --------------------------2.89 Moz + 300ml lbs Cu
Rovina 573M( 85% Colnic)------2.3 Moz. + 578ml lbs Cu
Ciresata 1248M( Colnic +Rovina)- 5.0Moz + 5mil lbs Cu
Total NPV == 2496M @ 1725 gold
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If Buy out
1. 20% of 2496. =. 499M. ----- @169m shares ----- share price = 2.95 ( $50/oz in ground)
2. 40% of 2496= 998M ----------@169M shares -------share price = 5.90($100/oz in ground)
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If Production
likely to be share dilution.assume 30%, so share total --= 220M shares
1. 2496M. @ 169M shares ===. 14.70/ share
2. 2496 M @ 220M shares ==. 11.30 / share
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unknowns
1.long term gold price :1500, 1700, 2000, 2300???
2. Will buy out be : 30/oz , 60/oz, 150. /oz.
3. how much more dilution: 0%. ,20%. , 50% ?
4. will F&M build( greater reward but greater risk )or sell? Can they find a buyer (first option I believe) If not will they immediately develop to hopefully capitalize on bull market
5. IS market pricing in buy out ,thus less enthusiasm vs some other production oriented miner
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Please do not take this as an expert analysis! It is , in my opinion, a reasonable estimate of what we have here in valuations and the forces at play that will decide the final outcome
constructive criticism welcome !
Hoping we can at least reach the lower estimates for share price in the next 6 months . Been here since 2016 and still underwater !