RE:Question for Ausheds, A tapering of supply or cut off? China published their 5YP to 2020 back in 2016, in English, clearly stated 140ktpa domestic cap with exports limited to 30% = 42ktpa.
2018 exports 52kt, 2019 46kt, and as at June 30 2030 they were 21,133t, so the reduction in exports should hardly come as a surprise.
US biggest RE import by far is La for FCC, Lynas has made big inroads in replacing Chinese material but is basically now sold out. Manufacturers would need to shift the formulation without Chinese supply until Lynas pending expansion.
Second biggest import is Ce compounds, Lynas would have no issue meeting all demand there.
Outside those two US imports modest quantities of Yttrium which Lynas could not supply.
Have a look thru the chart here for the last three years of Chinese exports by country by element and you'll see just how tiny US imports are for Nd, Pr, Tb, Dy, etc, Lynas can easily meet all LRE needs now except all the La, and with BLJV can easily meet all HRE needs bar Yttrium.
https://chinapower.csis.org/china-rare-earths/
As I've said here forever US need to build out competitive middle supply chain to OEM's before they will be a player other than La & Ce into catalysts.
But China won't "cut off" REO, what they will do is restrict magnet supply to companies like Lookheed, US desparately needs to build out that middle supply chain before China really turns the screws, no time to wait for science experiments, need urgently to import the expertise.