RE:RE:Insider Selling No Sleep,
I don't see how anyone can describe Ms. Cloete as dumb. She's the Chief Financial Officer, a Chartered Accountant, and I believe, has been with the Company for fourteen years. No one is better positioned to understand the fundamentals than Ms. Cloete. That said, she may have had financial obligations and needed the money. And she still has lots of options. But there were two other heavy sellers in July, and no buyers.
The claims made here by pumpers are unsubstantiated in the Company Economic Analysis, which is a matter of public record. Unexploited resources don't count from an investment standpoint. If an investor won't receive actual money for goods produced in the next 25 to 30 years, it doesn't mean anything. This isn't like real estate in Manhattan, London or Paris. Only profits generated in a reasonable timeframe count. For my own model, I use the Company base case scenario of 18 Mtpa at an 8% discount. It makes a big difference if copper is $2.50 or $3. The difference is almost $2 share. So, a very small differential in price has a huge impact on the bottom line. There are those here who believe copper is going to $6. No way, unless the USD totally collapses. I've heard the same arguments with Peak Oil, uranium, and cobalt. People believed the world was running out of copper a hundred years ago, in the 1920's.
Platreef is more difficult to evaluate. Will investors see PGMs as a store of value in their right? Platinum and Palladium are 30 times rather than gold. Historically, they've never been used as a medium of exchange in the same way as gold and silver. Perhaps their rarity makes this impractical. That may change, or not. We'll see. Platreef NPV will certainly come in higher than the previous DFS in 2017. The stellar performance of palladium is the biggest surprise. Higher long term price valuations for Pt, Pd, Rh and gold are well justified.
This is where things stand today. The world is changing, and the outlook may be better or worse six months from now. I don't set a single price target that never changes. It adjusts to the prevailing economic conditions. Right now, my expectations are in line with the analysts. To repeat: Tioranks has an average analyst rating of $6.39, and Refinitiv $5.83. Split the difference, you get $6.11 share average.