GREY:ATBPF - Post by User
Comment by
TechMooseon Aug 20, 2020 11:11am
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Post# 31433656
RE:RE:Acquistions out there ...
RE:RE:Acquistions out there ...MugMods....I am a regular fan of your posts. Appreciate your contributions on this channel re: Antibe. Full disclosure. I've only posted once before to this channel (asking about drug naming for Antibe) and I hold 50,000 shares of ATE. Have accumulated above and below today's market price over the past 18 months and have brought in a number of sophisticated biotech investors into Antibe as well as some retail investors, including my broker who runs an RBC office. My RBC friends have been watching with interest and sent me the Cannacord/Genuity summary the other day which noted this new analyst coverage.
More (hopefully helpful) background - I am a seasoned tech investor, founder, CEO and have worked with over 300 tech companies through my consulting work. I've raised Angel, VC, Filed on NASDAQ and have experienced the thrill of multiple exits. Some of my early consulting work included some guidance on Antibe's investor pitch to the Bloom Burton conference many years ago. That's when I first met John Wallace - it became clear they had very impressive IP even back then.
With regards to your comparison to Momenta - I'm not an expert on this sector, but I do know enough about how comparables work from an M&A perspective and it does seem like a stretch to cross reference TAM and extrapolate numbers given that they are addressing two different disease states. As well there is a retail OTC component to Antibe's business that I'm not seeing with Momenta - presumably would create a more complex valuation model for acquiring companies (such as Bayer who play in this area). Then there are presumably very different reimbursement and formulary strategies for prescriptions that would also influence valuation. And I'm not even factoring in the quality of the Momenta IP that J&J assessed here which could be much more developed and locked down with a tidy patent portfolio.
Anyways.....Not pouring water on this enthusiasm, and appreciate your continued analysis but instead advancing some points here and would welcome feedback from others on this channel on Antible competitors or comparables in adjacent markets that help us do some armchair calculations.
P.S. I am also are doing some digging on the new IR agency, Stern to get a sense of what they may bring to the party. IR has been lacking for some time at Antibe. Hoping for some wider visibility in the US with hopefully more analyst coverage which we'll need as part of a NASDAQ move. Let's hope Dan and team continue to play big. As a friend of mine (who was CEO of a little company called AT&T) once said....You Canadians have great IP but you need to think bigger and and not "go for bronze."
To your continued success...TM