RE:Canfor Buyout Coming?I am not sure. I see rising share prices actually as being more helpful for a take-over. CFF needs $6+ to bow out given the ghost of past forays to the South, and BWC needs to be whole.
My worry is CFP can't well offer up $6.00 for a $1.20 entity. There would be a mutiny. Who knows though, maybe they tally up synergies and blame the Poison Pill. In fairness there's gonna be virtually no net debt come Q3 soon, so the plant is worth $140M (10x EBITDA; so $3/share) and the mill is worth the same $150M ($600mfbm * 240MMFBM; $3/share) and the tenure is worth an easy $100M or so ($2/share). BUT WE ARE FORGETTING SOMETHING! LIKE DARK MATTER IN PARTICLE PHYSICS, WE HAVE A MGMT DISCOUNT APPARENTLY OF -$6.80/SHARE. That's Conifex's problem (and ours), not Canfor's problem. I wouldn't want to overpay if I was Don Kayne.
All parties would be better getting this to $3.00 then selling for $6.00 or $8.00 or whatever.
I am also dubious about the Canfor Mackenzie exposure. I think Hampton, RFP, or Tolko are better bets. Or maybe WEF or a Euro entity. Doens't much matrer though.
I agree with you the volume is odd however. I'm just mighty surly as I'm more or less fully deployed on this and can't bundle up cheap shares.
One more thing for the shopping list -- Shields should roll out a reverse split. 5:1. Make this junker eligible for funds to hold.
It's not godddamm rocket science Ken. Call your buddy Paul Quinn and you and him can figure it out in an hour. Cash is painfully short in the zero interest environment, and these clowns are loaded with robust cash earnings. GUESS WHAT THE MARKET THINKS OF YOUR ABILITY TO ALLOCATE CAPITAL, KEN. Give your head a shake, this is unacceptable -- and it all comes back to your inability to paint any sort of compelling framework or vision.