RE:Discussing the New Knight Therapeutics ...drippingsnot wrote: As I begin looking at the new entity, keep in mind that my focus is farthest from discussions about stock price. I will leave that discussion for others. It's just not something I fixate on - especially not with Goodman. "Build it and they will come ... eventually" will likely become my tag line here. Hahaha !
Let's remind ourselves what Knight said back in October about this acquisition...
- transformational ROW acquisition
- GBT is the largest Latin American biotech
- GBT and GUD create a unique growth platform {hard to replicate is how I read this - that's valuable to me and to the future of GUD}
- solid footing across 10 countries and close to other regions of interest
- diversified portfolios
- strong relationship with Gilead and Celgene
- GBT checks all the boxes for GUD {I think you can see those boxes in their acquisition presentation - maybe even the latest presentation}
- 700 employees focused on branded specialty pharma products {keeping an eye on this number as I'd watch to see if they can streamline the office with technology}
- looking forward to growth in key markets like Mexico - Mexico is the next big opportunity as per Amal Khouri
- GBT understands complex commercial and regulatory environments across Latin America {value here as well - hard to replicate from scratch}
- regional and regulatory experience, along with a commitment to global compliance standards makes GBT a partner of choice in LATAM - for US, European and Asian pharma companies {part of the value generation in partnering}
{very much a one-stop-shop being created}
This is where they need to proove that they can deliver - they need to show they are creating something unlike any other organization. A unique footprint with an ability to go to market efficiently.
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Let's look at a few populations that are being added to GUD's reach - but - let's only consider the popluations above the poverty line (as a start) ...
In Canada - GUD's target poplation is 34 million people for present and future drugs (country population of 37.6 million in 2020)
In Brazil - GUD's target population is 159 million people (country population is 212.6 million in 2020)
In Argentina - GUD's target population is 30 million people (country population is 45.25 million in 2020)
In Mexico - GUD's target population is 71.9 million people (country population is 128.9 million in 2020)
Now, let's take it a step further and lets assume our target is only half of those populations outside of Canada. That gets us much further away from the poverty line. We know there is a big difference between the "haves" and the "have nots" so just trying to focus on the "haves."
If GUD can pull it off, they increase their target for new drugs from 34 million people in Canada to (34M Canada +80M Brazil +15M Argentina +36M Mexico) or 165M people in 4 countries alone. That's like 5 Canadas. I think that's a low estimate but a fair visual for the size of the opportunity at hand.
I'm guessing this is what the elite GUD shareholders are seeing - the one's siding with Goodman - excited to build it.
EOM
There some things to think about but we can't compare the expenses for specialty pharma per capita in CAN vs LATAM. IMO
The other key topic here should the valuation. But it is anoying :) And not easy to estimate as most investors want to see the consolidated numbers first.