RE:RE:RE:CopperGanndolph1, interesting reflection "Orvana's stock price has put in a 5 year base with the lower end of the trading range tested 4 times on sequentially lighter volume."
This is exactly what caught my eye when I started reviewing Orvana’s price chart before I started increase my position. ORV was in a decline the whole way from topping out in 2011 to hitting bottom early 2016. Since then the share price has been consolidating and building a very strong foundation between the CAD 0.11 to 0.4 range going back and forth in this channel, setting a solid floor at the 0.10/0.12 level which has been tested several times and building a strong base for an upward move. I believe this upward trend has now been initiated through the shake-out in March -20 and now the second leap to the 0.23-0.3 range, where we are now consolidating. We have been bouncing around here while getting rid of some disappointed old timer investors that have lost the patience and don’t see that the company is set-up for a trend shift. However, liquidity is drying up and any new investor that wants to enter will have difficulty doing so without moving the price upwards.
Going forward I believe we will now test the 0.4 level, probably within weeks. The only thing needed is slightly improved sentiment in the PM market supported by maintained or increased POG. Even a consolidation in the POG would start to bring in new investors as many have stepped out after the last peak waiting for a good entry point and other new potential investors are doing the same. With a consolidated POG, maybe slightly trending upwards will make them start entering in order not to miss out on the next leg upwards.
Breaking the 0.4 level may require either good news from ORV or accelerated POG. We are now only three weeks from getting rid of the hedges and if ORV can show even a slighter increase in production for the current quarter, that would set the base for an upward movement.
Going forward, passing the 0.4 level sets the foundation for strong positive trend, with next stop around the 1.3 level. The last frustrated investors will have left at the 0.4 which will make the share price open ended. And I think we will get to the 1.3 level during Q1/Q2 next year based on maintained POG, no hedges, maybe slightly higher production volumes, which will turn ORV into positive earnings and strong cash-flow, combined with start of the OSP development that will support propelling us here.
By now momentum will have been built up and as we get close to the start of the OSP combined with updated development time line of Taguas will help us break the 1.3 area and get us firmly climbing towards the 4.0 level that I ultimately see where we are headed based on the chart.
So within 1 – 2 years I believe we have an easy 10-bagger as long as a positive PM market is maintained. With a further strong increase in POG, who knows where we could end up. Now all we need is some patience and a tiny bit of good luck :)