Elections, Vaccines, Stock Market, Drilling
We all approach things differently, and weight information differently.
Personally, I think most of the variables between the Three Amigoes and multi-bagger stock appreciation from today boil down to just two big factors:
The first is central bank policy and whether the FED has any prospect in the next 18 months to two years of a) allowing the dollar to do anything but weaken or just hold against other major currencies, and b) let real interest rates rise much past zero or negative. My conclusion: no. So build overweight positions in PMs.
The second is shallow ounces or higher grade ounces. On Goldstorm additional shallow ounces are coming in. Open pit model. On PSZ if those first holes have hit a lower grade outer shell, there are good odds of hitting higher grades - maybe shallow, maybe not, if they are high enough or multi metal gold/copper/silver/moli you have a block cave asset that will pull in a big valuation. And there remain other target zones elsewhere. So build or hold your Treaty Creek position as all or part of the higher risk end of your PM exposure.
A miracle vaccine (although since coronavirus is the same family as common cold and billions in research and decades has never solved its mutation ability ... hmmm ?), a real scary stock market slump, election results any which way may give you white knuckles, all of them are just noise against a global economic set of charts that look like PM’s will rise until substantial economic growth turns the tables on government debts and deficits, which looks to be happening no time soon.
As for pricing along the way, I leave short term trading to professionals who have their fingers on keyboards and eyes on tickers all the time. They will always beat me on short term swings, not only because of speed and information, but because they also have far more sophisticated hedge and option models to play. Buy dips and sell strong rises ... different issue. There maybe keep core positions but seize opportunity. Don’t trade choppy markets or indecisive charts and trading action.
Be right on the big stuff, sit tight, and don’t sweat the noise and worry. Post-Lehman, 2008 - 2010 you had two years to weather a really big scare, reload and make a huge swing trade on many miners before the global picture turned in 2011.
Good luck. And I’ll gladly take the vaccine hit to gold (which will be a buying opportunity IMHO) to see a lot of people’s health protected.
cg