RE:RE:RE:6 Pending issuesPerhaps. Older jets may be flying more, about the same, or less than before. Totally dependent on demand for private jet travel. I would tend to think that both demand for new planes, and older jet usage, would be in sync with overall demand for private jet usage. However, I am not connected to the industry, and don't know that to be true.
Jim
Bullvsbear99 wrote: If production is reduced then that means existing older model jets are flying more. Bombardier is well positioned with aftermarket support and income from that will help the bottom line.
Jim99999 wrote: This is very important. We know that new jet orders dropped sharply when the pandemic first hit. If they have not picked up, BBD may be forced to slow production so as to maintain a somewhat healthy backlog.
I believe that when all deals are closed, BBD will still have around $6.5B long term debt, costing them about $475M per year interest. With that much interest to pay, BBD can not afford to cut production.
Jim
pablo87 wrote: First part, BT and Belfast. Second part, Bombardier Aviation going forward. 3 issues each: First, completing BT legacy issues before the transfer to Alstom. Obviously Alstom must be satisfied otherwise the agreement would not have gone definitive. We should know the status by early November. 95%.......... Second, completion of agreement with Alstom - after todays announcement of the huge order by France to Alstom, my guess is 95% by Q1. But we'll know by end of October (Alstom shareholder meeting).........exact money we'll have to wait until March. Third, completion of Belfast sale - 70% is my wild guess but I don't believe we'll get $500M - my guess is $350M. We'll know by end of October......... ********************************** Fourth, improvement of BA margins to 12% EBIT. My guess is we won't know for sure until February. I'm 80% confident on this though because if labour and other internal costs are viewed as fixed, the profit contribution from selling more units is significant, they just have to maintain a higher cadence. Depends how much mopping up remains. Expecting 10% for Q3. We'll know soon enough but it's quite important re credit ratings.............. Fifth, BA backlog maintained. Not confident. 50%. We'll know by early November (Q3 results). Again, it would affect credit ratings.............. Sixth, refinancing and debt outstanding. Fairly confident they'll end up with $4-5B of net debt but not confident they'll get competitive rates (3-4%). They need the ratings agencies or the govts (Ottawa/Quebec) to play ball... 30%. Without it, ratios will remain out of whack which long term isn't good. We'll know my March........... At one point I though it possible although unlikely for Bombardier to buyout CDPQ's share of Alstom but now I think it's totally impossible. COVid and continued issues at BT sealed that fate IMO.