RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:This board is fairly useless Cousinadam, I am all for a balanced board and welcome those who back up their bearish or bullish stance on a company with solid dd. I tried numerous times to engage Kyle in actual fundamental analysis but was attacked, labeled or dismissed numerous times. I found the majority of his posts to be inflammatory and bullying and for the most part, utterly devoid of sound due diligence. So I put him on ignore. For now he has been on the right side of the trade (ie super bearish on this company). But the sector valuations have collapsed in the last year so he could have been saying the same things and applying them to just about every other company in the sector.
I took a beating in this stock and sold for a painful loss. I kept it on my watch list and tuned in to what the company was doing. When they substantially reduced their expenses and confirmed they will be cashflow neutral by eoy, I rebought.
I agree with your comments on the kuida line. I don't think the margins will be very good on these distribution deals and it is a product in a very crowded market. I see sales growing but kuida is not why I bought khiron.
This is a medical cannabis company with significant first mover advantage in their home country of potentially 6M medical cannabis patients. listen to the recent presentations and how the prescription growth is building. If they only get 5% of those potential patients over the next 3 to 5 years, that will be around $150M in annual sales.
Listen to Chris's enthusiasm about the UK project and how the marketplace is opening up and barriers coming down. Just Columbia and the UK alone will completely change the revenue picture of this company in 2021. The UK scripts are backed by insurance to upwards of $2000 per person per year. Just on the 2021 project that could gross khiron $10M next year. For now the Columbia medical mjpotential numbers for 2021 are a huge moving target, I've estimated a very conservative $6M for now. The script issuance continues to grow significantly and they plan to rollout this model with 3rd party clinics around Columbia. It's too early to have any revenue ideas about Brazil or Germany but for now I am comfortable targeting around $25M revenue next year.
From that perspective, khiron is currently selling at around 2 times forward sales while the sector average according to an analyst report I read recently pegged the sector average psr at 1.5. So khiron is about fairlyvalued currently. Having said that, the market is giving absolutely no valuation premium to a company that is radically morphing into a completely different animal. Their first mover advantage in LatAm, the talented team they've assembled in the regions they've moved into. I believe the sector collapse was completely needed and has made khiron a much better company..
Just my 2c and all imo