RE:BBD.B = CDN $0.36 !, IT IS WHAT IT ISShamhorish, do not set yourself up for disappointment. Try to keep your expectations realistic.
If there was any chance that BBD would make $400M next year, the stock would be trading above $3 right now. BBD will likely not be profitable until 2022, and even then it will likely be only a modest profit. To achieve the numbers you are saying, revenues must increase sharply, margins must improve, and interest expense must decrease dramatically. All that will not happen within the next 12-15 months, especially with the effects of covid-19 on the economy.
Jim
Shamhorish wrote: BBD.B = CDN $0.36 !, IT IS WHAT IT IS
IT IS UNFORTUNATE, but in my openion, it is at least 2-3 years too early to even think about bankruptcy possibilty
bbd has enough money,(even withoit closing Belfast deal) to get to Q1 2021 and close Alstom deal
once Alstom deal is closed BA will have at least $ 4 billion (may be more depending on how much cash bbd will have at end of 2020 (may be 1.0 b or $2.0 b)
out of the 4 b bbd will pay 500 million to new loan facility
then in 2021 BA will pay $1.25 billion for long term loan (3.5 - 1.25 =2.25b)
depending on how much money bbd will have in cash at end of 2020 BA then will have $2.25 + 1.0 or 2.0 b = 3.25 to 4.25b
out of this bbd will pay about 700 million to interest for long term loans
(3.25 - 4.25) - 0.700) = 2.55 to 3.25
in 2021 BA should make at least 400 million
i.e BA will have 2.55 - 3.25 + 0.400 = 2.95 - 3.65 B
then in 2022 BA will pay $1.75 b
(2.95 to $ 3.65 b ) - 1.75 b = 1.2 b
i.e bbd may end 2022 with $1.2 b
in 2022 BA should make 0.400 million, i.e BA may have 1.2 + 0.4 =$ 1.6 b
in 2023 BA will have to pay 1 billion, i. e 1.6 - 1 = $ 0.6 b
in 2023 BA will make at least 0.400, i.e BA will have 0.6 + $ 0.4 = 1. billion
by then bbd would have paid ( -0.5 - 1.25 - 1.75 - $ 1.0) = 4.5 b in long term debt (l.d will be $5.5 b)
during these coming 3 years BA may show profit of 400 million or more per year
with this performance BA may be able to rengociate loan interest rates or get new loans from same initity that supplied the late 1.0 lfacility at 3.0-4.0%) and pay older long term debys that carry 7.5 - 8.5 interest rate
if i am right in my assumptions, there is no bankruptcy, bankruptcy is ont on the table
beside i am sure Martel may have better plans similare or much better than what i assumed could happen
they can play with share price as they wish, they are deceing people and steeling there shares on one hand, and giving an opportunity for others to capitalize on good return to come
this is not to tell you to buy or not to sell, you do what you want
, it is just my openion, i did not throuw the towel