Magnet REE growth will soon reach 'escape velocity'I like the sound of that ;-)
Adamas Intelligence
Demand growth of the 2020s will soon be dwarfed by the astronomical demand growth of the 2030s – and therein lies the real defining challenge and opportunity facing the global rare earth industry today
Looking ahead to 2030, it is exceptionally challenging to foresee how, under any realistic scenario, the supply-side of the rare earth industry will be able to keep up with rapidly growing demand for magnet rare earths (i.e. neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium). Moreover, in attempting to keep up with magnet rare earth demand growth, it’s equally challenging to foresee how the industry will be able to cope with mounting surpluses of other sacrificially overproduced rare earths, such as cerium and lanthanum.
However, when peering into the outlook for the next decade to come, it becomes quickly apparent that the rapid demand growth of the 2020s will soon be dwarfed by the astronomical demand growth of the 2030s – and therein lies the real defining challenge and opportunity facing the global rare earth industry today.
If the global industry continues to operate myopically – the rate of demand growth for magnet rare earths will soon reach ‘escape velocity’
If the global industry continues to operate myopically – preparing, anticipating and investing only for a three to five-year outlook – the rate of demand growth for magnet rare earths will soon reach ‘escape velocity’; a point at which annual demand growth becomes so great (i.e. >6,000 tonnes per annum) that it is simply implausible for the already-lagging supply-side to catch up and keep up.
To avoid this fate and seize the enormous opportunity ahead, a flood of investment is imminently needed to develop new sources of supply and downstream value chains to convert that supply into metals, alloys, magnets and other materials used by high-tech industries globally