TSXV:RHT.H - Post by User
Post by
Aei773ouon Sep 29, 2020 12:10pm
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Post# 31635303
My Expectations 2 - updated
My Expectations 2 - updated Let’s face it, you buy this stock because you see the potential high return and you should also recognize the high risk associated with it. This is what is lying in front of you:
1. Is it still a potential of high return with what the info we have?
Answer is yes.
2. Is the share price justified at present status quo of the company? Answer is yes, visibility is zero as no future guidance is provided while more shares issued dilute the value. An update to my repost below - Market will assume no growth and now begin to price in negative growth on reluctance to resume guidance. Below 0.2 means further downside ahead before the next QR by the end of October. The two year low is 0.165 on an intraday but the company is fundamentally much better than two years ago. I would expect in a far swing it may touch 0.185, even this I would say is temporary.
3. Can we use past history for reference to guesstimate for the next QR?
Answer is I will use it myself. Just see my repost below.
4. Should we buy at this point in time?
Answer is yes to buy half position if I don’t hold any shares but I will wait for a couple of weeks before the end of October. When QR comes out then consider to buy the other half on positive news or sell on negative news.
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Repost of my previous analysis last week :
My Expectations
For those who liked my posts know of one thing lacking in it - froth. Right now my expectations is based on what is the best I like about and worst I hate about.
I hate about is what you hate as well - total opaque in business and company operation. I hate about the company not trying to restore shareholder values promptly IF they actually have the knowledge of substantial positive development. My worst hate about is IF they actually have no substantial positive development and yet try to mislead with the mentioned 500k+ in the pipeline and $50k worth of bought shares by the ceo.
I like about the share price currently priced in for absolutely no growth and is solidly supported at the 0.21 and that is proved many times this year as the pivot point. I believe we see this level IS the bottom. Trading below 0.2 means the market expects the company is going to fold unless something positive comes to rescue. I most like about is IF they are buying time to gather as much steam as possible to head for an impressive or breathtaking announcement.
All my “hate about” is based on past behaviour of this management. We take it as no news means no good news. So if all my IFs in what I hate about turns out to be true then the company is truly in a confidence crisis like in 2018 and I will call it uninvestable. The management should be aware of the consequences and the collapse of the company they are building up for many years. Having said that I cannot imagine this scenario can even remotely happen as the company is not in such a shaky position as in 2018.
All my “like about” is based on the price history of this year. Fundamentally, to be conservative my expectation of the coming quarterly financial is about $500k with 10% growth rate (previously was $460k with 15% growth rate). Using a mid range price to sales ratio of 15 the current price trend is somewhat supported. I expect the downside is very limited. So using this as the base, if my IFs in what I like about turns out to be true then the company is truly going to fly in 2021. The market asks “where is the beef?” before believing it then it is still fine - just let the company hand them the plate. Time will tell. But my thesis is reason enough for me to hang on for the dealer hit me with the last card.