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Husky Energy Inc. cumulative redeemable preferred T.HSE.PR.B



TSX:HSE.PR.B - Post by User

Comment by zalmonellaon Oct 05, 2020 11:38pm
105 Views
Post# 31671697

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Like the KING the dividend has arrived $$$$$$$$$

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Like the KING the dividend has arrived $$$$$$$$$

Husky or rating agency has nothing do with setting the rates.   Rates are based on only 2 things.  Fixed rate plus 5 year Bond Yield.


I'm not sure you understand how rate setting works.  The number that gets added to the 5 year bond yield doesn't just come from the tooth fairy - the board sets that 30 days before the reset date, and they have a careful balancing act to maintain. Folks who generally buy preferreds aren't interested so much in capital preservation as they are in income, but even the most blind folks among them can't be happy seeing their preferreds that they bought at $25 now trading for $5.95. Some of them have probably been freaking on their advisors on a daily basis since March.

If the board sets the rate too high, it costs the company money.  If the board sets the rate too low, investors are pissed and make trouble.  The retail investor like you and me that buys on the market for short term high yields or capital gains is of no interest to the board. 

I'm thinking that the board is looking at the new cost of money now and saying that in general investors investing in preferreds want 2.5-3% more than Canada bond yields, so that would mean on a $25 share a dividend of $0.87 - $1.00.  Hell, when this rate was last set (back in 2016) Husky still owned a refinery on the coast and a bunch of gas stations!  A lot has changed.  Currently the divvy on the As is $0.60, and investors can't have been happy with that for the last five years, which is probably why there has been such an active market in Husky Preferreds.  Given Husky has been de-rated by the agencies at least once in that time (Bbb+ to BBB), I would expect they would have to offer investors a bit more of a premium than that.

But that's for the investors who bought the preferred at $25.  For the aftermarket guys like you and me, we only look at the yield, which is why I'm saying (if my thinking is correct), a reset next March to a divvy of $1 or even more would raise the yield to 15-18%.  To compensate, the market would move the price of the A's up to $10-12 to restore the yield to 9%, the same as the other preferreds.  And if WWR resumes work with a new partner, and Liuhua cash flow shows a nice increase, the yield would be under pressure to drop further, thus raising the price even more for a better capital gain.

It's not the way market advisors recommend investing in preferreds, but when the market says "OK, now jump left!" your only answer should be "How far?"
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