SPCEO1 wrote: While we all sympathize with Longterm's exhaustion over many catalysts coming thru but the stock price not reacting to them as it has been very frustrating for all, catalysts are still what is going to drive the stock price higher. So, here is my list to supplement 1998novl's.
1.) FDA/EMA approval of a phase III NASH trial. This is clearly the catalyst that should have the biggest impact on the stock price. All the other catalysts below pale in comparison. I am guessing we hear in January.
2.) This one actually already happened but since TH did not announce it or refer to it in their Q3 call, the market is not aware of it. TH is now getting 48% of Trogarzo's gross revenues, versus the previous 38%) as they finally met the $55 million in sales since inception goal that triggered the higher revenue share sometime during Q3. That is like a 26% price increase on Trogarzo so that will certainly help Trogarzo sales comparisons over the next year. Even if Rukobia (Fostemsavir) proves to limit growth of Trogarzo in the US over the next year, TH may still see sales growth due to this factor. By the way, the gross price of Rukobia is $91,800.
3.) The NASH and Cancer protocols should be filed withthe FDA soon. To the extent the company shares info with us about them, it shold give us some insight into both of those programs. Filing those protocols may also trigger analysts to apply some value to them.
4.) While perhaps not likely, there is a chance TH does some sort of partnership deal on cancer. The Chairwoman said back in July that they were fielding a lot of calls following their presentation at the cancer meeting in June. My best guess is they are not in a rush to partner as more value could likely be obtained post phase I, but if someone makes them an offer they can't refuse, then maybe something happens sooner. Perhaps the delay in the NASH protocol is to discuss details with a potential partner on that as well. Not likely but any partnership on either project would eb a very big deal for the stock as TH is getting zero credit for its pipeline right now and a deal would obviously legitimize one or both programs.
5.) New analyst reports could be published as analysts position themselves for the inevitable share offering which would happen if the FDA/EMA do approve the NASH phase III. Since HC Wainwright has typically been aggressive in chasing such deals, I would not be surprised if they picked up coverage of the stock and they usually apply aggressive share price targets to the companies they follow. On the other hand, coverage by Wainwright is not likely to attract a lot of, or perhaps better said, lasting, attention to TH's stock.
6.) Canaccord's analyst has needed to take some time off due to a death in his family so he has not been heard from recently. When is gets back in gear he may update his model to include some value for NASH. We know from his original report he already has the NASH model built - he just needs to plug in some numbers into the model. His report could attract some attention fro investors and lead to buying of the stock depending on how he chooses to market his research on TH.
7.) European growth for Trogarzo is almost certainly going to be impacted by the resurgance of Covid there, but whatever they can sell will be still be additive to total Trogarzo sales. Competition from Rukobia in Europe is likely around 18 months away.
8.) Assuming the FDA/EMA do approve a NASH phase III protocol, the inevitable share offering will likely cause a flurry of activity from analysts and push the share price up meaningfully just prior to the offering. This could really move the share price higher.
Possible negative catalysts:
1.) A democratic sweep in the US election leading to serious pricing pressure on Trogarzo and Egrifta.
2.) Any attempt to do a share offering at a low stock price prior to getting a thumbs up on the NASH phase III from the FDA/EMA.
THIS WOULD BE A HUGE DISASTER AND WOULD HAVE SERIOUS REPURCUSSIONS AS SHAREHOLDERS WOULD LIKELY REVOLT. Let's face it, many shareholders are primed to revolt already given the inability management and the board to get TH's share price the recognition it seems to deserve. Such an offering cannot happen, no matter how much money large institutional investors promise to give TH if they just sell them shares now at cheap prices. If the EMA/FDA turn down TH's phase III NASH trial, then the company does not need the money. If they give TH the thumbs up, TH should be able to raise money on much more favorable terms.
While getting turned down on the NASH phase III would be a big disappointment, it would not necessarily have a big negative impact on the stock price since the stock price does not have any value in it for NASH at this point. That may change in the coming months as the FDA's decision approaches but it is hard to see the stock getting pummeled from the current low level when it is clear there is no value for NASH ascribed to it yet.
1998novl wrote: Opportunity cost is easy to add up in hindsight. Just like you, I would have enjoyed owning Shopify, Coupa Software etc etc..., in being an owner of TH shares - it's exactly that, ownership.
Catalysts as I see them:
1) IND for SORT and NASH.
2) IV Slow push
3) Egrifta SV bounce back and continued momentum as I can only imagine patients will stay on this version longer
4) Insider buying by new BOD's - Molson and Trudeau likely replacing Pommier and Lacoste who are now above age limits set out in Bylaws.
5) New Institutions or Small Funds or Pension Fund accumulation: We know the only remaining pension fund is Caisse. But we also know institutions are only following RBC analyst Abrahams. And the only way Abrahams is changing his tune is the FDA's blessing on NASH p3. So no new institutional buying until January at the earliest.
6) New info from Grinspoon on NASH, further explanation of totality of data an maybe a hint of new partnership agreement with Harvard since they are already have a royalty deal in place.
7) Trogarzo growth (Europe)