RE:RE:Parsley Energy 125 kbd - sold for $4.5 billionLol, well executed summary, wouldnt you agree Fellowship?
Anyways, momo, aside from the condecending words and half completed thoughts, a few things you should keep in mind. Doesnt matter if you call it the derogatory "tarsands" or appropriatley named "oilsands" it is still growing and exporting at 3 mmb/d, averaged discounted at 25%, and that will continue and grow over the next two decades, with a decline in the discount.
Secondly, lifting costs of the thermal oils have decreased drastically. These are long life reserves with high initial capital followed by years and years of low capital expenditures, in other words easy money in comparison to the ever needed d&c of the shale plays. Shales in the US are already off over a million barrels since the start of the bust, proof of the play lies in the chapter 19 filings of the shale producers over the last few months.
Which brings as to ATH. When actually comparing the two companies, instead of throwing out the baltherings of "tarsands" and "heavy stuff", lets put all the apples out there. Approximately 5x's production, 4x's debt and a market cap of 4 bb., I also find closer to a price of $52,000 per flowing bbl. ATH looks to be approximately as mentioned $1.10-1.20 valuation when using the same metrics and a 30% discount of heavy, event though 1/3 of their production is light oil/condensate/gas, or $2000 per flowing bbl.
Prior to the altimate crash in march, the free cash flow of ATH was already established with minor sustainment capital needed for the next couple years. IF ATH continues prudence with spending through the downturn, which will turn around as nation states cannot withstand the pressure of hte low price for too long, and, as the exec has proven capable many times in the past, find a good deal for refinancing of the 2022 long term notes, it will be a blowout. I advise you to start dumping your shorted shares long before then or you'll get slaughtered when the run comes.
Good luck to all except shorts.....