N00bInvesT0R wrote: In this post, I will discuss Aphria recreational market share progression
Due Diligence
This was very useful in my due diligence so figured it's important and helpful if I can
show you how it works. Government website is where you find the raw data.
Step #1, click on the link below. Latest data is for the month of July 2020.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=2010000801#timeframe
Step #2 Click on the North American Industry Classification tab
Step #3 Uncheck the Retail Trade checkbox and expand it
Step #4 Expand Miscellaneous store retailers
Step #5 Check the cannabis stores option that appears and click on apply
This is what you should get , link : https://i.imgur.com/BjZkIu1.png
Step #6 Click on the Adjustments Tab
Step #7 Uncheck the box called Adjusted
Step #8 Check the box called Unajusted and press apply
This is what you should see :
https://i.imgur.com/jMUxl6R.png
Aphria Q4 2020 covers the following period : March April May
and they reported 56,687 M $ CAD in recreational sales, link below
Page 23 : https://aphriainc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/3a.-aphria-Q4-2020-management-discussion-and-analysis-v2.pdf
Aphria Q1 2021 covers the following period : June July August
and they reported 69,616 M $ CAD
Page 19 :https://aphriainc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/aphria-Q1-2021-management-discussion-and-analysis.pdf
Page 20 of the same link above, they say the following :
Increase in the adult-use cannabis sales by 5,949.0 kg equivalents to 16,780.3 kg equivalents sold in the current quarter, a 54.9% increase from the prior quarter. This increase was largely driven by the release of the Company’s release of large format products and new economy brand B!NGO, which provided 6,340.4 kgs and $18,748 of additional sales during the quarter as part of the initial pipeline fill of these new offerings.
If you do the sum of the numbers from my Stats Canada Website that cover the same period as Aphria Q4 2020, the total is 545,962 M $ CAD
If you do the sum of the numbers from my Stats Canada Website that cover the same period as Aphria Q1 2021, the total is 678,685 M $ CAD
Aphria recreational Market Share
During Q4 2020, Aphria market share = 56,687 / 545,962 = 10,38%
During Q1 2021, Aphria market share = 69,616 / 678,685 = 10,26%
So even if sales from a $ wise perspective are higher, somehow the market share % is not higher on top of the impressive 18,748 M $ CAD the new B!NGO brand generated that didn't exist during Q4 2020.
My questions/worries are :
- Does that mean B!NGO brand cannibilize other Aphria brands?
- Or B!NGO brand saved APHA from an even worst negative reaction and it means that another Canadian MJ competitor capitilized better on that increase of Canadian recreational sales ( from 545,962 M $ CAD to 678,685 M $ CAD)
With those questions/worries in mind, I'm curious to see Aurora Cannabis and Canopy Growth Corporation earnings report because their earnings are due for the month of November.
Disclaimer
I currently don't own APHA Shares, I have no short interest also, I'm just analyzing the data that is provided to me and doing an interpretation.
The decision to buy or selll your shares should be based on your own thorough due diligence, not because some random guy on a forum called N00bInvesT0R influenced you.
This post is for educational purposes only.