3Q PredictionsI have a very simple xls model going to predict the financial results from the operating results.
Assumptions: cash cost per ton stays flat at $41.44 (this is conservative given the increased tonnage should drive it down).
Average realized price is 85% of the average spot price. I'm think that 15% discount at the mine to spot is enough to finance distribution. Anyone who has industry experience is welcome to tell me what the real value should be.
With that, I'm showing a quarterly gross profit of $8-10 MM. Extrapolating to say $35 MM Gross Profit annually, this stock is trading at ~1.7x gross earnings.
Further, given that 4q is expected to be a blowout with the new scooptrams further expanding processing, it seems that the leadership team plan to pay the $20 MM Zimapan purchase out of operating cashflow!
EXK is roughly double the production at 1.8MM AgEqOz per quarter, but their market cap is 10x that of Santa Cruz.
So, the question is: under what circumstances will we see a price of $2.00 per share?