RE:RE:interesting week and future outlook: beers :)@kramaswamy First of all: my optimism on the share price was not meant to be confrontative of course. Seeing the fact that apparently there are still many "older" shareholders with a lot of book losses, I will take that into account in future postings and formulate things more neutral. I respect everyone in here and I also guess, everyone knows what feeling it is to sit on stocks with a loss.
As for management, as I said, I dont see them negative, but positive. Even the aquisition of Rosh Pinah and Perkoa in 2017 for 400 M USD by the old management wasnt a big mistake as both mines produce at lower costs. Certainly, looking back, one could have done many things better, especially keeping more cash, not doing stock buybacks etc. etc. but the old management is gone and the actual management hasnt made any major mistakes, but brings down costs and has a good plan where to go with the company. Of course, management cannot influence the zinc price or the TC. Trevali has to try to live with both and in 2021 might with a little luck profit from good zinc prices and lower TC.
As for the zinc outlook, your view is about the same view, Fitch has: higher prices for now until spring 2021 and then declining prices. Goldman Sachs on the other hand is talking about the beginning of a bull-run for commodities due to a lower USD, recovering economy and global stimulus in their latest analysis. Personally I dont calculate with "more price fantasy" in zinc. If that materializes and we d see 1.30 zinc, everyone is cool with it. I dont believe in it though and just state that Trevali will easily make it to 2021 and that in 2021 with lower TC, Trevali can operate with 1 USD zinc prices.
So yes, we ll see a supply rebound in zinc in 2021 and probably some higher demand as well with a surplus in zinc in 2021 thats smaller than that in 2020, thats my best guess. But we wont see that "double whammy" of TC 300 and 0.86 zinc anymore and Trevali will succeed in being profitable in all 2021, maybe also by hedging in some nice zinc prices.
With 2 profable quarters, institutional buyers will come back and the stock will be lifted up again. Thats my perspective for now.
As for late 2021 and 2022... nobody knows anything, its just too far away and everyone including management will have to adjust the future outlook in maybe 6 months.