SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust CWYUF

RE:RE:RE:RE:How long until a $30 handle with Pfizer vaccine?

[logicandinertia]

The Pfizer vaccine is expected in December and other stage 3 candidates currently in trials are expected to release results over the next several weeks.  THe CDN government has secured deals with most of the leading firms, including 20 million doses with Pfizer alone (couple of doses per person, so that is 10 million people).  Pfizer is saying it can produce 50 million doses in 2020 and 1.3 billion doses in 2021.  so you are right, it won't be broadly available, but the combination of it and other successful vaccines means that the vulnerable in Canada will be covered likely in Q1/2021 (the virus is, statistically, not that dangerous for the under 55 and healthy populace).  

SmartCentres share price action likely also will be contingent on what their results this week illustrate.  Status of deferrals, lease renewals, mixed development project updates, etc.  The CFO has already publicly intimated that 95% or so customers are now paying rent, but we shall see.   If they can sustain that pre-vaccine, then mkt likely comfortable in what things will look like post vaccine.  

To expect it to reach $30 is unrealistic in my mind.  Not only will retailers continue to feel the effects of Covid over next couple of quarters, but shift from brick and mortar to e-commerce is real and we have already seen the combination of already weak retailers + Covid equal bankruptcy (i.e. Reitmans).  Dynamics in the GTA condo market also turbulent.  That being said, Mitch is a good operator and density in most of their major centers continues to rise.  Benefits their existing real estate portfolio and the ability to introduce mixed development.   No exposure to enclosed malls, and anchored by grocers.   Collect the dividend and the share price will, over time, appreciate IMO.   

Good luck.