RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Here's what I read:Cheadle, nice work on estimating the potential production from the new wells.
I did some quick math and here is what I came up with:
Using the 9-5 type curve from slide 11 of the November 2020 Presentation and assuming December 1, 2020 on production date.
9-5 New 7 Well Pad
December 1 – 30, 2020 - IP 30 (per well)
8 Mmcf/day (1333 Boe/day) + (273.6 Bbls/day NGLs) = 1606.9 Boe/day
IP 30 for New 7 well Pad total production = 1606.9 Boe/day x 7 wells = 11,248 Boe/day
December 1 - March 1, 2021 IP 90 (per well)
6.5 Mmcf/day (1083 Boe/day) + (222.3 Bbls/day NGLs) =1305.6 Boe/day
IP 90 for New 7 well Pad total = 1305.6 Boe/day x 7 wells = 9,139.4 Boe/day
March 1, 2021 the 3-32 UCR Pad with 5 new wells and 1 DUC well comes on production.
I don’t have a type curve for the 3-32 Pad but the map on slide 12 shows an IP 180 at 939 Boe/day for the 3-32 Pad.
This would give the 6 new wells a combined production rate of 5,634 Boe/day for the IP 180. Assuming the 6 new wells have declined by 50% in 180 days, we can gross production back to an IP 30 rate of 11,268 Boe/day.
So 11,268 Boe/day (3-32 Pad) + 9,139 Boe/day (9-5 Pad) equals a potential combined production rate from the 13 new wells on March 1, 2021 of 20,407 Boe/day.
Now using the table from slide 11 we can get the IP 360 for the new 7 well Pad. To get the average daily rate in Boe/day, take the 365 Sales IP of 4,822/day from the table and divide by 6 to get 804 Boe/day for gas and add 141 bbls/day per well of NGLs for a total of 945 Boe/day. I have declined the 3-36 pad by another 25% from the IP 180 rate.
IP 360 New 7 well Pad total = 945 Boe/day x 7 wells = 6616 Boe/day. (Dec 2020- Dec 2021)
IP 360 New 6 well UCR Pad total = .75 x 5634 Boe/day = 4225 Boe/day (March 2021 – March 2022)
These rates include production decline and should still be above a combined rate of >10,000 Boe/day in December 2021. If Crew’s existing production of 22,000 Boe/day declines by 11% (Montney only) to say 19,580 Boe/day. Crew could still exit 2021 at around 30,000 Boe/day mark.
What is nice is that Crew also have an additional 5 wells drill ready on the UCR Pads, that can be added to maintain these production rates, all it takes is more money.
Keep in mind that some wells will perform below the curve and others above the curve. Crew may choose to restrict production from these wells in order to capture better pricing or because of facilities limitations. The December 2020 budget and production forecast will hopefully tell us alot more about where the company is headed.
Crew is spending approximately $100 million dollars on these programs so they had better get >10,000 Boe/day!
These calculations are very rough and as always please check my math.
Looking good for Crew in 2021.