RE:RE:Q3 transcriptTWM has a long list of game changers.
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/tidewater-midstream-and-infrastructure-ltd-announces-strategic-expansion-of-its-liquids-value-chain-with-the-acquisition-of-prince-george-refinery-including-a-five-year-investment-grade-product-offtake-agreement-which-results-in-over-50-acc-882196439.html
Tidewater expects this transaction to be over 50% accretive to distributable cash flow in the first full year of operations based on Tidewater management's estimates. Overall the Acquisition provides improved future distributable cash flow per share which is expected to reduce the Company's debt levels
| C$ millions | Tidewater Stand-Alone | Pro Forma PGR |
| 2019E Net Debt(2) | $520 - $530 | $800 - $810 |
| 2020E Adjusted EBITDA(1)(2) | $130 | $205 |
| 2020E Distributable Cash Flow(2) | $60 - $70 | $105 - $115 |
DCF for 2020 is on pace to hit ~$47M ($34M through 9 months), less than half of their estimate from Q4 2019. I know 2020 is a COVID releated write off, but I think it'd be interesting to hear some details on the $60M miss. EBITDA being off by $20M only clouds the mystery. 2021 EBITDA should be even higher, but DCF will be about on part with their pre-PGR runrate. Has the base business declined that much?
I do think a lot of this is reflected in the share price now, but after numerous reinventions have failed to pan out:
- I think I bought into the story as an optimizer of cheap and underutilized infrastructure. Acquiring the BRC then relocating an idled turbo expander, then building a small field frac, then acquiring attached storage, then tieing it into a new power plant: that was a story I could invest in.
- Moved to be a developer of newbuild processing capacity
- Then with the expiry of their non-compete they began crude marketing
- Then bought a remote refinery
....then covid.
I don't expect every move they make to work out, but going in every direction at once is the same as not going anywhere at all.
For 2021 I'll guess adj EBITDA of 210 and DCF of $69.71M