RE:Payman2dibBrothers in arms ;)
I have always been wary of technical analysis. However:
- A friend of mine, a highly regarded guy, has developped investment strategies to identify buy and sell signals, based on technical analysis. I was dubious in the beginning, but he has been doing quite well since the late nineties. He never invests in stocks. He focuses on the S&P index. Except when he has a sell signal, he sells an in the money put and buys a lower strike put on the SPX for protection and for leverage. He has achieved 20-35% per year consistently for the last 20 years or so except in 2008. I will explain: If the SPX is at 3,557 and unless he has a sell signal, he would sell a PUT option at a strike price of 3,400$ expiring in 37 days (December 18) for 30$ and buy PUT option at a strike price of 3,300$ for 22$ for a net credit of 8$ on a maximum exposure of 100$ which incidentally would be his margin requirement. The lower strike put substantially reduces his margin requirements so he can leverage and also limits his losses. If the SPX remains above 3,400$ by December 18, he would have made 8$ on a 100$ margin (his cash remains in his account) or 8% in one month. If the SPX drops, he rolls both options one month further in time. So he is combining technical analysis and a 35X leverage (his investment is 100$ not 3,500$ which is the price of the SPX). The problem: In 2008, the SPX dropped heavily (and he had missed the sell signal so he was bullish). He rolled both put options for a few months for a credit that he used to reduce the two strike prices to get closer to the market trading price, and was able to get out with minimal losses. However had the market not gone up subsequently like from 1929 to 1954 he would have waited a long time. In mathematical terms, we refer to the expectancy (esperance mathematique) as the product of the probabilities multiplied by the profit or loss outcome (loss is negative). For example, if i am playing roulette and I bet on red because the probability of getting a red is 50%, i also lose if we hit 0 or 00, so my probabilty of success is 18|38 (47%) and that of loss is 20|38 (53%). If I am playing 1,000$, my expectancy of win or loss every time i play is : 0.47 * 1000 - 0,53 * 1000 = 60$ on average per play if i play too long. Chebyshev - law of large numbers has demonstrated that we reach this average loss if we play an infinite number of times. That is why you should get out of the table when you win in a casino (not the stock market ;) hahaha. The stock market is NOT a casino or you will finish like Jesse Livermore - read his suicide note.
- Technical analysis as our friend FORM has pointed out in different words, reflects what an insider is confiding to his mistress (assuming she has enough money to buy a bundle of the stock or is a big talker to share with all her other wealthy friends who start buying), to quote a Swiss banker friend of mine (the one who got me into the Quota fund at my early beginings :) over Perch fillet lunch at the Geneva Hilton overlooking Lake Leman (the fish came from Canada even in Geneva, imagine - it was ok but you go there for the view not the quality of the food hahaha..).
In conclusion, I like technical analysis but i would not bet on it. It is a complement to the fundamental assessment, as finalstep pointed out.
GLTA,
Gabriel