RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:TREVALI EXTENDS ZINC HEDGING PROGRAM OUT TO END OF 2021Hi Alf,
I keep speading the mis info on this board.
Regarding Caribou mine, it has been a resonable mine, under TV's effort, the recovery rate has been much higher than the bluenote days, so it had a much lower cost. These are all before the geotechnical issues, and TV has been trying to solve this issue before Zinc price went down. Here are the summary of 2018 & 2019 costs for Caribou.
2018/Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 Cash Cost-All in Cost:
0.73-0.90; 0.89-1.11; 0.75-0.94;
1.29-1.93. 2019/Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 Cash Cost-All in Cost:
1.06-1.19; 1.07-1.21; 1.02-1.15; 1.05-1.24.
As I said, TV has been working to improve the mine to reduce its cost. Certainly, when the TC is finalized next March, say @150/ton, bring more more feed from nearby mine, hedge another 25% production, Caribou is a decent mine.
tiger
AlfTanner wrote: Petz, let's just take the 2019 total AISC for Caribou of $1.17. Caribou is ALWAYS going to have problems, so using anything less than $1.17 is unrealistic. Add $.10 for a total cost of $1.27. Yes, there would be some care and maintenance savings. If the mine can produce 75M pounds of zinc, and the care and maintenance savings is $6.7M, then the savings per pound would be $.09. However, if you are going to give credit for care and maintenance savings, you need a more realistic number for restarting the mine. You are probably looking at closer to $25M. Spread that over 2 years for $12.5M per year. That would add $.17 per pound. If the mine did stay open more than 2 years, that cost would go away.
So you are looking at a breakeven of $1.17 + $.10 overhead - $.09 care and maintenance savings + $.17 reopening cost = $1.35
I keep coming back to $1.35 as breakeven. I still maintain that you need $1.50 zinc fully hedged for 2 years to make reopening worth the trouble. That would give the company added profit of 75M pounds x $.15 = $11M profit per year for at least 2 years.