RE:RE:RE:PHOTO Am I correct that a fast overview of your workTrouger - Trying again...gotta love SH.
When I am right, by skipping stage 2 Excelsior will be at stage 3 only 3 years from now and not 5. According to FS, page 227: Stage 1: Years 1 & 2 Stage 2: Years 3-5 Stage 3: Years 6 & 7 So by skipping stage 2 (which would last 3 years) we are 3 years closer to full production.
Great question. As is most likely apparent, I make every attempt to be conservative in the assumptions presented...maybe too conservative. I am an engineer have been involved in large DoD projects all my career. Even the best managed projects have hiccups, whether from internal or external causes. We have all experienced examples of this for Excelsior during the 2020 calendar year with the botched startup back in January and Covid-19 which caused worldwide shutdowns. My point is, things never work out according to our best laid plans. For this reason, I padded the ramp-up time of the Phase 3 rollout according to the schedule below. My rationale for the resource estimates are as follows: 2021 (Yr0): Fine-tune the Phase 1 operation. Reduced quantity of approx 50% of nameplate production. 2022 (Yr1): First full year of Phase 1 operation. Arrange financing for Phase 3 construction. 2023 (Yr2): Construction start for Phase 3. Existing Stage 1 operations continue in parallel. Estimate 18 months for Phase 3 construction and bring-up. 18 months may be too conservative. 2024 (Yr3): Slow ramp-up of Phase 3 for partial year for 50KLb in that calendar year. 2025 (Yr4): Continuing optimization of Phase 3 operation for 100KLb that year. 2026 (Yr5): First full year of nameplate Phase 3 operation at 125KLb/yr that year and beyond. 