OTCPK:ICPVF - Post by User
Post by
MustangMatton Nov 27, 2020 10:53am
972 Views
Post# 31988790
TheBridge
TheBridgeIt is nice to see somebody on the internet with some class. They say you get more bees with honey then vinegar.
I think you have to understand politics to understand oil and investing.
Some folks made a lot of $$ understanding the politics of what weed legalization would mean I bought shares of Canopy for under $2 bucks. I bought after Justin T AKA socks was elected. I don't let poiltics get conflated with making money. We don't have to stand in the rain to know that it is wet.
That being said, my insight into IPL is this.
It is not clear. short answer.
Long answer. It looks like they have run into some turbulence with the new plastics plant. Billion dollar cost over run to date. What has got me concerned is that the plastics plant is a little outside the companies direct area of expertice. In hindsight they should have partnered up prior to construction start.
Going forward, there is lot's of potential catalysts. Partnering up now at a high valuation, improved oil product pipeline business, future asset sales, or outright company sale.
I think firstworld and few others have outlined the risks here and I think they are real too. What keeps me out of the name for now is the cost over runs the Sturgeon County Refinery ran into. They ended up billion(S) plural, over budget and year(s) plural delayed.
To Inter pipes advantage the employment situation in Alberta is super conducive to low labour and build costs going forward. There is no competing jobs for trades, materials etc. If Interpipe was to pick a cheap time to build this would be it.
On a macro note there has been a trade into value the last few weeks. I don't know if it is sustainable. I suspect it is not. All the oils are up because of this rotation. The value segment has been so beaten up there is still massive potential upside. I have been thinking about trimming some oils but have not yet for this reason.
IPL is a show me stock for right now. Like Maxmoe said if they execute you likely see the stock melt up to $20. The folks buying at $12 or under should have some margin of error. Cheers Matthew