RE:RE:RE:RE:The financial statements are out Hello Torontojay,
Considering that we obtained in cash flow for the first 3 quarters of 2020, i.e. $ 18,749,000 + $ 7,458,000 + $ 28,058,000 = $ 54,265,000, we should obtain $ 25,735,000 in 2020-Q4 for a grand total of $ 80,000,000.
Here is my cashflow projection for 2020-Q4, as well as the process. To achieve this, we need to estimate 4 pieces of information, namely the number of tons of ore that will be processed, the average grade of the ore, the recovery rate of the gold and finally, the value of the gold.
Number of tons of ore processed for 2020-Q4: Considering the installation of the new reject pipe which has been in operation since the beginning of November, I will estimate the first 46 days according to the tonnage processed daily in 2020- Q3 while the last 46 days will be estimated based on the results obtained and published in the management report, ie 6,900 tonnes per day. This represents 46 days at 4,765 tonnes + 46 days at 6,900 tonnes = a total of 536,590 tonnes processed in 2020-Q4.
Average grade of ore: Considering that the low grade ore processed at 2020-T3 contained 0.86 grams per tonne and, considering that the uniform grade ore processed at 2020-T2 contained 1 gram per tonne, I will use an average grade of 0.93 grams per tonne.
Gold recovery rate: Considering that the recovery rate obtained in 2020-Q3 was 88.2% and, considering that the recovery rate obtained in 2020-Q2 was 89.5%, I will use a rate average recovery of 88.85%.
Based on these parameters, we'll get 536,590 tonnes processed x 0.93 grams per tonne x the recovery rate of 0.8885 = 443387 grams of gold or if you prefer, 15,640 ounces of gold.
Estimating based on today's gold value of $ 2321 CAD and averaged charges, I estimate that we will have EBITDA of $ 24,105,000 in 2020-Q4 and $ 78,370,000 in 2020.
I estimate the margin of error at 5% and I consider that these ounces produced will be sold.