RE:Why any investment thesis involving QNX requires Yasch22 wrote: a long hard look at how Tesla is leading the field. I realized that the following may be construed as a recommendation to switch from BB to T, but please keep in mind dwdc's warning about Tesla's massive valuation multiple. In a sense, BB is safer because it takes such a low multiple, which pretty obviously go up IF Chen & his crew deliver average or better than average growth in two main divisions: UES (enterprise software) and Embedded (QNX).
Also, bear in mind that Tesla really is a completely different kettle of fish than BB, despite the overlap in several areas of automotive software.
To begin with, investors are making a huge mistake if they categorize Tesla exclusively or even primarily as "an industrial manufacturer." True: Tesla in fact would still be worth a big percentage of today's valuation if it was nothing but a car-maker, because it's growing more than 40%+ per year, and disrupting the whole industry. But it also has all of the following:
1. Its own huge supercharging network, and not just limited to one country. This would be like Ford owning a worldwide chain of gas stations -- with the difference that Tesla doesn't even outsource the design and manufacture of its own charging stations. Keep in mind too that Tesla is still giving away a lot of its juice for free. Soon enough it will be charging, say, a good $10 to $20 per fill-up.
2. Its own battery manufactory, including a top-flight research team on new form factors and chemistry for its batteries. Taking vertical integration to a crazy new height, Tesla even has tentative plans to develop its own lithium mine in Nevada (for lithium-ion batteries). This would be like Ford owning 75% or more of a company like Exxon.
-- except that Tesla can boast that its vehicles have much longer range and/or higher efficiency, which is a bit like saying that you get 10-20% more mileage with a kilowatt-hour of electricity from a Tesla station than you do from the other guys.
3. Its own manufacturing of solar panels, solar roofing tiles, and inverters (?), along with the business of solar roofing installations.
4. Its own energy storage business. Tesla has installed several of the Top 20 energy storage sites in the world. It has a multi-billion order book counting to mid-2023 at present levels of battery output. But it also builds Power-Wall storage units for home-owners.
5. Its own insurance company. Potentially a gold mine, because Tesla can offer cheaper rates based on actuarial info supplied to Tesla by each car.
6. Its own computer chip-making operation to serve all the company's SW needs, but mainly to act as the basis for autonomous driving.
7. A "Full Self-Driving" package, from chip to AV algorithms fed and clarified every day by massive amounts of feedback from the 1 million-plus vehicles Tesla already has on the road. Tesla is charging something like $8000 to $10,000 for FSD. It's taking the money upfront, and confirming part of it as revenue whenever they pass certain milestones.
8. Tesla has started its own app store. One of the apps on offer is the QNX-powered EVE. I'm not sure what percentage Tesla will be taking from app sales, but the prime model here is Apple's Store, where they take a 30% commission.
The traditional internal combustion OEMs have all got to start racing like crazy at this exact moment in time just to keep Tesla in sight. QNX I believe should have a good run for the next 4 or 5 years, as they're "in like Flynn" in so many different levels of sw development in so many different OEMs and Tier Ones. Basically, most companies in the automotive biz have to stick with tried-and-true QNX as their foundational software, as the risk of going with something brand-new or experimental could in theory kill them.
Disclosure: I own shares in both Tesla and BlackBerry. I believe Tesla will be a lot more volatile than BB (and therefore more dangerous) in the coming 3 years. On the other hand I suspect TSLA also has a better chance -- even though its present valuation seems crazy high -- of going to even crazier heights than BB.
Nothing is certain. As always, do your own hot & heavy due diligence!
LOL
Your timing with that drivil is so bad!