RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:DBRS Morningstar Rating on Crew Energy I hear you and this company has disappointed me a bit too much too. If they spend $80M just to increase production by 2,000 boe/d, then this company deserves to be trading lower than $0.40/share. I am hopeful.
Cheadle12 wrote: I'm an optimist too, but I've seen modest but reasonable capital budgets, but in the past several years, I've not seen production increase. I don't see anything different now. Mathematically, there should be 30kpbd production given capex & drilling, but my spidey senses suggest that it'll still be in that 20-23,000bpd range still.
gonatgasgo wrote: I have a feeling land is very hard to sell at a reasonable price, so as a result, its "market value" is very low. If Crew were in trouble, they could not sell their land quickly. I think Painted Pony is an example, although I was not following the story closely.
There is no question that one significant land sale for Crew could make the stock price double overnight. Maybe with higher commodity prices, there will be demand for land.
In the meantime, I am counting on increased production and generation of free cash flows.
Cheadle12 wrote: Fully agree.
If you think back to that movie "pretty woman", Richard Gere was the character that went in to buy companies and sell them off for parts.
It 'can' be a similiar situation here (and at Kelt), but it very likely won't be.. it's a good company and oldnagger you nailed it where it's not about cash flows.
For example, imagine if they sold off 3x non-core assets and paid the debt down to zero in the way that Kelt did. What's left? Well, certainly a lot more than a $50-80M market cap. The balance of the EV will tip (exponentially) in favour of the market cap.. meaning, a much higher stock price appreciation as the same level of debt is paid off.
Often, smart real estate investors will take a cash flow loss (great for tax purposes!) on a property that can be sold eventually with a large capital gain (also the best for tax purposes). Probably a similar case here.
~Cheadle.
Oldnagger wrote: Excellent info, the only thing that I can add is that these reports focus only on cash flows. They forget to mention that based on assets the company is far from over-levered.
As long as sales of either land or over-riding royalties are possible there is little true financial risk.
Forget about Painted Pony , that deal really was tainted and should not serve as a basis of anything other than the credibility of the players involved in it.