RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:president reportIt is always fun to compare the results given by each of our models and
revise our assumptions when they differ. Thanks to you both for the exchange.
As far as reduction of debt in 2021, the only possibility would be if they keep capex
at the bottom of the budgeted range, aka $300m.
They can no longer find the cash by reducing dividends, they went from
$217m in 2017 to
$127m in 2018
$46m in 2019
$16m in 2020
and will be $6.5m in 2021 if they don't change it.
If they wanted to prioritize debt reimbursement, they would have guided a capex range of $225-$275.
Time will tell...
But I expect more of the same...
We are nowadays living the gnarly consequences I was expecting in the middle of 2017, when capex were over $500m and dvidends were at $217m (per annum) instead of taking a more humble path.
Then these lousy basis hedges at a massive scale.
Who is nimble on the Board of Directors?
Regards,
Houba