RE:RE:RE:Get the landI think that was written in the 2014 range when management was advising that Florence was going to be shovel ready within a year or so (meaning 2015). So here are my thoughts:
1. I think the planets are aligning on Florence, thank god. But I still don't believe it was a good investment. Time will tell. I've lost track of the costs. $100 million was spent in cash and equity 6 - 7 years ago. Tens of millions since then. Another hundred million and change to go, and we won't own the entire mine. Clearly the JV partner will get the best investment. $100 million or so for 25% of a soon to be operating mine with little to no risk (other than operating risk). On the other hand, the TGB shareholders have carried all of the risk for years, and will have about $300 million or so in the deal for 75% of the mine. So I'd much prefer to have been the new guy buying in.
2. I hope Brian is right and the permits are issued (of course, if you go back and read all of the PR's and cc's, Florence is always going to be "under construction next year.") So on the whole, Brian is bound to be right at some point. The question is whether the Town or others will appeal. If so, more years get burned up. Looking at the recently elected town officials, I don't see the town appealing. But others could.
3. I'm not a fan of management. The recent PP is a perfect example. They did the same thing on the eve of the Prosperity permit. Yes, Prosperity, not "New Prosperity." They sold 25% of Gibralter to raise the cash to fund the CapEx. Share price went from $6 to $4. And then of course, the permit was never issued. Hard to imagine a strong management team selling 25% of the company to raise cash to build a mine before the permits are issued. Based on that, we all thought the final permits were a slam dunk at the time. So the recent pp was just deja vu for me.
4. We'll see how the numbers play out on Florence. And as I say, thank god it may actually happen. But the cost has been dear, and the risk could have wiped us out several times. Even with the benefit of hindsight, I would have preferred to have all of the cash that has been dumped into Florence and Aley. We could have paid off most if not all of our debt by now. Then we just return cash to shareholders until there is no more copper in Gibralter. I would have paid for my shares many times over with that strategy with very little risk.
All of that said, all I can do now is cheer and hope for the best. I've been trapped with a very large position since the Prosperity and New Prosperity permits were denied. And I've hated the idea of dumping my shares for a fraction of what I believe they are worth when copper is bottoming. If copper can hold and/or move higher over the next year, and if Florence moves forward without a hitch, I believe $3 US is a reasonable expectation. Like Brian, I'm bound to be right at some point in time!