Eoganacht wrote: In my opinion it's cheerful gobbledegook. The pandemic is currently at it's height. When will the United States economy recover from the COVID-19 pandemic? Certainly not in 1Q21. Maybe 2Q21 or 3Q21? Theralase keep talking about launching US sites in 4Q20 and 1Q21, subject to impossible conditions.
Kingpin68 wrote: So, does anyone know what this really means, launching US sites pending economic recovery. Is it job numbers, stock market, Covid cases. What's the criteria ? Seems vague. Why should any of that stop US sites if the hospitals have capacity to do it.
At present US COVID ICUs are filling with patients rather rapidly. Then, too, no decision will be given on Pfizer's proposed vaccine until Thursday, December 10. Because it requires storage at -94 deg F, there is expected to be a lag of at least a week in deploying the vaccine while the logistics and the handling are sorted out (McKesson is contracted for the rollout).
Moderna's vaccine could be approved a week or so later, and the cooling requirements are easier to accomplish. Training and administration of this vaccine may proceed a bit quicker, but it, too, requires two doses, though just three weeks apart.
In the US it is expected that the available 40 million doses of each of these two vaccines will be furnished first of all to health care workers, and then to those living in nursing homes/assisted living facilities, followed by high risk individuals. Individual states will make their own determinations of who gets priority.
Since two doses are to be administered some four/three weeks apart, a total of 40 million people could be vaccinated within six to ten weeks of this week's expected FDA approval of the Pfizer vaccine. Note, too, that up to now we have only Pfizer's and Moderna's opinions regarding the efficacy and effectiveness of their vaccines.
The documented side effects of these first two vaccines include local and general aches and pains, as well as hangover-like symptoms. There may be some who won't follow through and get the second dose. The antibodies take about a week to develop after each dose of vaccine.
Just from these basics it appears it will be the latter part of January before the earliest of those vaccinated will have developed the durable antibodies from the two doses, and perhaps another month for the rest of the first 40 million (that's @ 10 million vaccinated each week).
Thus, IMNSHO, I don't expect any US Theralase trial sites to be launched in 4Q20. Hospitalizations among the rest of the public at large in the US likely will continue into 2Q21, even as additional vaccines and additional doses of the initial vaccines become available. The high level of hospitalizations is likely to continue while all or most of the 40 million have been vaccinated and have developed the antibodies, so it could be March or April before hospitalizations decline significantly.
The current projection is for sufficient availability of vaccines by June 2021, such that anyone in the US who wants one should be able to get a vaccination. Therefore, my guess for Theralase trial sites in the US is no sooner than 2Q21, and likely later in 2Q21 rather than sooner.
Eoganacht, you can hope for sooner, but hope is not a plan.
Murphy's Law -- Whatever can go wrong, will go wrong.
And always remember that Murphy was an optimist.