Nevada Copper Corp NEVDQ

Capt. Nugru and the underwater city.

[bogfit]

“I bought my first few toowwwsand of NWHM at about $8.00”.  sighed Capt. Nugru searching the horizon for rescue,   "And I've been underwater ever since."




Wow!  You are SO underwater on this small, mom and pop homebuilder with a trading volume less than 61,000!!!  How in the hell will you ever get out?

IMO New Home could show a good gain this next year – could, just based upon what I know about the 2021 new home forecast.   

“We expect housing’s winning streak to continue in 2021 as seasonal trends normalize and some of the frenzied momentum fades thanks to fresh affordability challenges.”   Realtor.com 2021 Forecast

So what about the new home market in 2021?

“Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and servicers put forbearance plans in place to help with loss mitigation. However, as those forbearance programs come to an end in 2021, the future remains unclear.  The job losses continue to to decrease significantly, but many of those jobs have not returned, making some experts question foreclosure rates in 2021.”

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/whats-next-for-housing-in-2021/

Other forecasts in markets that New Home operates predict sales growth of 7% - 11%.  The real question on New Home appreciation is their ability to ramp up production from only a couple hundred employees.   If their sales increase as much as 15%, I cannot see how that size earnings increase would propel the stock to double in 6 years, let alone 6 months!  But the bogey-man long term is the increase in mortgage rates that is sure to follow stimulation and infrastructure spending.

I’ve met men like H. LAWRENCE WEBB before.  Formerly “Chief Executive Officer of John Laing Homes, where he was instrumental in growing it from a small, two-market company to the second-largest private homebuilder in the United States. In June 2006, he sold John Laing Homes in the largest private residential transaction in U.S. history.”

Seems I remember something happening in those aught years that came to a crashing halt, coincidently at exactly the same time Webb sold Laing Homes, in June of 2006.  Now what was that momentous event?  Oh yes, the housing bubble, the one that Webb helped create, the one that gave him all his wealth, the one that popped just as he dump his company.  That wasn’t just a good move that was either a brilliant move or just plain lucky, which does sometimes happen. (I closed on my NoCal RE sale – Jan. 06)  
 
But here’s the thing I’ve met men like Webb before who were in the right place at the right time, namely builders in the spread of suburbia in southern California, when if you build, it will sell.  And each one of them believes that their success was entirely due to his personal acumen.  You know men like Nugru.

About NVHM

I wondered what in the world caused NVHM t lose 80% this spring and  found it was their 4Q2019 earnings indicating that the  company had been on life support but was now breathing on its’ own.   Apparently most of its shareholders weren’t convinced but something happened to Nugru.  The same day that NWHM reported 4Q2019, Ungru posted “February 13, 2020,

“RE: Earnings today after the close.  Time to check the charts: 3 month, 12 month and 36 month chart... lookin' great IMO”  -

 and the stock cratered!!!  Nugru doesn’t have nuthin’ to say about New home for half of 2020 following its crash until September 15, 2020

“A coiled spring.  Nothing but good news for US home builders in the past few months. NWHM has some catch up to to. A stock price north of $9.00 is conservative relative to peers.”

In summary, IMO the housing market will likely prove favorable for home builders depending on what happens in Wash D.C. over the next few months.  That said I cannot see any reason to believe that the company will show the stock appreciate as predicted by our barker-in-chief.   If Nugru has reason to support (with evidence ) the profitability of this company over the next 6 months I challenge him to post same.
 
b.