RE:RE:RE:Upcoming subscription model and Airbnb I've assumed those similar metrics and valuations along the way. Growth is accelerating at record pace. The CEO has pointed out that there are several upcoming growth drivers that we learn about in the coming months.
These types of SaaS companies get their valuation once the growth trend line can be extrapolated and interpreted. I believe there's a very strong possibility that we have a 8 to 10 bagger from $0.09 in 30 months from now.
drogala wrote: I was excited to hear UI finally issue guidance in the presentation given to SmallCap Discoveries. Their estimates ($6M in FY '21) lined up nicely with my internal projections ($6.1M). At that level of revenues the company should be doing somewhere around $4.3M of gross profit and, based on my conversation with management, G&A / opex should hold steady but I've inflated it a bit to $2.5M from $2.1M on a TTM basis.
Based on the above the company should do somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.8M (let's use a range of $1.5M - $2.0M) of operating income. Assuming a 15-20x multiple, for a company growing revenues 30%+ and earnings ~100% that seems reasonable, we'd be looking at an enterprise valuation range of $22.5M - $40.0M.
Backing out ~$3M of pro forma debt would yield an equity value of $19.5 - $37M compared to a current value of ~$9.5M (100% - 400% upside). This doesn't factor in warrants/options/conversion of remaining debentures but given the value gap those are a non-factor.
If we roll this forward another year and indeed hit a $10M revenue number, most of that will drop to the bottom line and you're talking about $4M+ in operating income and a value in the range of $65M to $88M or truly 10-bagger potential.
Looking forward to watching this company continue to execute on the massive opportunity in front of it and hopefully realizing their true potential. As noted above its a very lucrative proposition.