RE:RE:DividendI'll take a stab.
Taking a look at the December 2020 presentation: +$20MM in annual FCF for every $1/bbl WTI increase between $45-$52 WTI.
Let's assume 12 months of $47 WTI average until 2021 Q4. So that's +$60MM. Up from the base $350MM, totaling $410MM (incl. Q3 2020 to Q3 2021).
Next debt maturity is only $400MM in 2024. So let factor in an early redemption of $50-100MM in 2021.
Also assuming a NCIB (limited to 10%). 56M shares @ say $0.9/share - $1.4/share (hard to predict here). That's another $50.4MM - $78.4MM in buy backs.
This leaves roughly $231.6MM-$309.6MM over 504M shares... translating into a tidy dividend of $0.46/share to $0.61/share?
Feel free to point out where I'm wrong.