RE:RE:100k share block and 12.5k market buys by RJ Well there's always a silver lining. I figured I should buy a fancy vehicle with the houses' money if I can nail my stock picks. I can still always win with lowered expectations... maybe my fallback should be the Chev El Compreno? Gotta take the omen when it presents itself. It means CFF can stay at $1.50 indefinitely and I'm still livin' large.
My simple read off a quick skim of TSX bylaws is we know for sure in Jan 201. I understand that buybacks need not be disclosed until the following month. Interesting Q for IR I suppose? We do know these guys are pretty lean. Maybe they're too busy to file.
Moreover, I can't imagine what else they'd be doing with the cash? Remember this Q4 is not one (I hope) where Ken's losing his shirt on bad futures hedges or forgetting to sell the chips. Pus, they gotta make it rain on all this dilutive incentive shares, after all. I do get the feeling that Ken would like to be able to advertise "debt free" which he's on track to be before end of FY21 though, so maybe you're right and they're just bogarting cash like financially illeterate chumps. The issue is you'd be an absolute fool to believe the shares are likely going anywhere but up. Not as a fanboy, and I'm no fan, but as an objective observer. They remark on that -- steepest discount to book in the industry, save for RFP but its book is messed up by largely useless pulp assets.
So that's the tension right. You have to keep in mind these guys are sharp businessmen. They, uh, ain't the best operationally. Sort of the inverse of a Canfor. I'd be shocked if a decent financial person didn't max the NCIB, esp. after they said they would, given the above. What would you do? Moreover as I've remarked M&A is out of scope given the hot market. What can they afford? $50M? What's that buy you these days? For all I know valuations have been pushed up to $800.mfbm capacity given the hot market and short capacity. That's like 1/5 of a decent sawmill. Think their hands are tied. And piecemeal capex has gotta have a big waitlist too. CFP and WFT are big guys who muscle their way to first in line if you want a new board edger.
Like a better company, Norbord, says: control your controllables. Ken made a mess of the share count in '18. Fair enough. Now he needs to shrink it. i understand the aprehension on the div too as I see it being decoupled frmo valuation in many cases -- "not getting rewarded for the div". Moroever, they can aim for that in 2023 once the float is down to 38 million shares or whatnot to be more effective. Hit the NCIB first man.