Aphria Inc. APHA

RE:A rainy Saturday

[CanadianProud04]

Hello Vinny.  I believe we exchanged barbs in the past because we enjoyed jabbing at one another...  Actually, I sincerely believe you make good points.  You never miss an opportunity to throw a shot at anyone if you feel you are negatively and unfairly critiqued!  Understood...

Devil's advocate it is:
  

1. If this merger goes through, Aphria and Tilray will be the largest global cannibis company by revenue as of now.  As I stated before, Americans believe bigger is better!    "NASDAQ" 
2. Unfortunately, because of pure unadulterated greed, the stigma of the Aphria name is "real".  The name will be gone, and the name Tilray resonates much better with Americans.
3. Increasing cultivation in Leamington, and implimenting the intellectual properties and growing to scale will significantly reduce redundant costs.  Currently, Tilray produces a gram for $5.61 CA, while Aphria produces a gram for $1.41 CA.  Hopefully this can be applied to other Tilray operations across the board.
4. Speculation: To open the door, sooner rather than later in the United States to decriminalize Marijuana!!  Clearly this would be a humongous market!!  Hundreds of Billions of dollars.  The Georgia runoff election for two Senate seats is HUGE!!  This obviously decides who controls the Senate.  Democrats endorse the decriminalization of Marijuana!  Go Dems!!
5. Speculaton 2.0:  The decriminalization of Marijuana across Europe.  Tilray seems to be well positoned in Portugal.  This will also open up an opportunity for a multi-billion dollar industry throughout Europe for all things related to Marijuana...
6. We cannot discount the Inbev connection with Tilray.  Inbev has a market cap of $140.278 US.  Inbev and Tilray currently sell "Everie" teas, which contains 98% Cannabidiol and 0.05% milligrams of THC. The Sweetwater deal with Aphria open up a whole new segment.
7. There have been 125 new Cannibis retail stores open up in Ontario since July of this year.  From 125 stores to 295 as of December in Ontario. The total number of retail stores in Canada is in excess of 1000 retail stores.  APHA & TLRY merger approximately 20% of the market = $$$.
8. Marijuana sales in Canada for 2020 are projected to be $3.16 Billion, up from $1.46 Billion in sales for 2019.  APHA & TLRY merger approximately 20% market in Canada = $$$.
9. Canopy had a closing share price of $33.28 CA as of Dec.18th. This is a share price to sale ratio of 25.02.  Insane ratio!!!  Aphria had a closing share price of $9.79 CA as of Dec.18th.  Their share price to sale ratio was 4.907.  How can Canopy's share price to sale ratio be 5.09 greater than Aphria's??   Stigma of the Aphria name, Canopy "first to market", and Constellation Brands partnership with Canopy play a major role here!  God willing, if the merger takes place with Tilray, it eliminates Aphria's name and aligns them with Inbev and reduces the significant valuation gap between Canopy and Aphria/Tilray??
10. Tilray's EBITDA is actually close to positivity, all the while lacking sales.
11. Tilray has a U.S. Hemp and Wellness Platform with access to 17,000 stores in North America.  Tilray seems to a have better foothold in Quebec as well.
12. Aphria and Tilray have no near term maturities on loans.

Food for thought...    GLTA




CanadianProud04