RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:CIDY vs THTX..I've used the analogy before, but the confidence interval around a "fair" valuation is a good model of how the market can work in the absence of an anchoring value. Right now, to me it's probably fairly valued for the long term cash flow growth of the two commercial drugs. Maybe a bit undervalued if full Europe comes in and IV Push, etc... But it's fairly close. But the uncertainty of the pipeline and other issue (like timing of events, efficacy of F8 in NASH, TH-190x drugs in humans) present a wide array of possible scenarios none of which can be ruled out at this time becuase we don't really have enough factual data to handicap them into the future. I think this board's done a pretty good job of figuring out what the very specific issues "at risk" in the trials are and what issues are likely not "at risk". I think the balance is pretty good, frankly maybe better for most NASH drugs and oncology. But that's opinion and not fact yet.
So the reason we need the data, facts, trials, mechanism data, etc.... is that it starts to shift that confidence interval upward around a higher anchoring value and eliminating the tail portion and shifting the right tail further up. Small facts can help, but the large ones that truly point a way toward a logical value will be the most important. I do think that the various NASH comps and oncology comps will come in to play as the two trials place THTX into the context of a biotech with an innovative pipeline in two extremely large markets. I know we all have done the math (I've posted it as has SPCEO and others) on what kind of valuations comps have, and I have to think as the market hears more from management they will find an interested market if the facts line up and there is an opportunity seen for substantial gains. It helps if there's credible research around it, but really all it needs is credible developments and facts that can help eliminate the left tail and elongate the right tail, thus moving up the average of what's viewed as a "fair value" based on what they are working their way in to becoming.
While there is a history, the stock price doesn't know it and any new investors (which this stock will eventually find) won't actually have the history we all have. Will they care? I suspect they won't. We've all invested in companies that may have had a tough time in the past or been average but have a factual fundamental reason to believe the business prospects are substantially different such that we don't really care what happened in the past. But the beginning of all this is transitioning the pipeline from idea to factual trials and results. Then we can at least have an anchoring point above just the commercial drug values and see some upside priced in. Maybe it starts tiny with the trial approvals and ramps up with the cancer conference data in April, IV Push and then follows through with NASH trial ramping and oncology results later in the year. I don't know which of those will tip it over from the "prove it" category to the "promising" category, but they certainly have a solid chance to do that if they can execute and execute fast and professionally.
scarlet1967 wrote: The market ascribed almost a billion dollars market value to THTX based on Trogarzo capturing some %25 of a market with twenty thousands patients even with a admittedly high priced tag couple of years ago.
Now apply whatever discount to a pen injector vs orally administered drug for an up and running phase 3 even phase 2b/3 NASH program for a potential multi billion market with no competition up to now then you get the picture how this company should be valued if and when the NASH protocol is a go then do the same exercise for the PDC market so yes if successful the potential prospects of THTX is enormous and we could see some serious applications of the SP in the next few months but the company needs to show progress in one and/or both protocols.
scarlet1967 wrote: I fully agree the bar is higher since the commercialized drugs so far didn't materialize supposed to what everyone was expecting but their R&D track record has been much better.
Also the market for lipodystrophy and HIV1 MDR is nothing close to general NASH and PDC so any progress in those programs should have a meaningful impact on the valuation.
We are talking about multi billion dollar markets VS tiny lipo and MDR markets.
The lipo still has the stigma of being a cosmetic condition and Trogarzo has serious competition in a relatively small market, NASH potentially a fatal disease effecting hundreds of millions of patients with growing prevalence and no treatment and the oncology platform if successful will be the multiple of NASH in terms of profitability.
Just look at comparable NASH and oncology companies and their valuations...
jfm1330 wrote: Remember, they got tesamorelin approved, but failed to get substantial profit out of it, either alone or with Serono, so they were a prove it company when they acquired the right to ibalizumab. After approval I thought it was the proof of a succesful company. I made a mistake. It was a scientific success, but again, a commercial failure. So I agree we are back in the prove it zone, but I think the bar will be relatively higher this time. Skepticism is in full force. They will need very good results in cancer relatively quickly, otherwise the road will likely be long. On the NASH front, I don't know if it can drive the stock price in the short term. Possible approval would be in 2024 at best. Unless they can convinced some big investor to buy, or some really start to make valuation comparisons with other NASH companies. I don't know.
Wino115 wrote: It's been said many times here, but they have been relegated to "Prove It" territory, so we need solid fundamental developments to underpin valuation. That should get it moving the right direction.
Definitely tax selling. I had some small below market orders at $2.10 that got hit toward end of day. A lot of times, they alot a certain number of shares a day and rush to meet them at the end.....and then start again tomorrow! We should only have another 7 trading days in the year so it's just about over.
Adonis wrote: I want just to know who selling at this price..!??