RE:Nordgold Throws In The Towel On CardinalI think the answer is yes, both fortunately and unfortunately.
NG are soon to be even more flush with cash having accepted Shandong’s offer. I believe they hold around 25% of Cardinal shares. However, it is interesting that a new offer this week by Dongshan at A$1.20 was rejected by CR because of verification requirements, etc. I think the CR board just wants to get paid and move on. Not sure how CR retail investors feel about the possibility of now leaving an extra 0.13 per share on the table without any real investigation ('bird in the hand worth...') .
The CR shares I believe were originally around 0.46 cents when the bidding started with NG offering initially around 0.66. This became quite a bidding war demonstrating the desire of Chinese and Russian entities to land new gold mines globally.
If the Montagne d’Or permit is granted, IMHO, this will become an extremely attractive mine at 2.75 mill oz P&P (plus the held NG infill drill results to add as well as the recognition of OREA good exploration data on strike for at least another 700ms and I believe up to 100m below the deepest pit identified hole).
If NG had got the CR mine, I think they may have considered selling out Montagne d’Or with OREA to generate cash for both their return to the public market and their new mine buildouts elsewhere; having been being partially drained by the CR acquisition. However, now with the cash gained from their interest in CR, I think a joint sale is much less likely. So OREA’s 45% will be under the spotlight.
We had the recent news from OREA on the completion of the studies to enable submission of ESIA and apps, which had no impact on the sp. How the market will react to the any actual announcement of application submission which should now be in the 1
st ¼ 2021 to the French, is also problematic.
We clearly need upgraded reevaluations by analysts of the potential mines value in today’s gold price environment to really see a sp impact. NG, IMO will come in very quickly to buyout OREA’s 45% after the permit confirmation. They do not want the OREA sp running up. I can see the ‘big boys’ (Newmont, Barrick and IAG, all are already in FG) and Chinese entities being very interested in Montagne d’Or as the prime mover gold mine in FG. However, if NG determine to maintain control of this potential mine, I am not so sure this will occur. Interestingly, I believe
Dongshan[jj1] are a Emirati – Russian joint venture so may be such an entity would be more amenable to a joint holding (with NG they apparently have the money).
Regardless, as OREA long term investors I think we must hope that our sp is well above todays 0.09 (by multiples) if we are to get a worthwhile return via e.g., a 20 – 50% bid by NG above the moving average used (which is the range likely and knowing NG more likely towards the lower end). Or, will the likes such as Sandstorm want to see a royalty from this new mine and fund OREA in the buildout?
Further, it will be interesting to see how the Maripa project is also handled? Will it be spun out at a buyout (e.g., AUAU was spun out of CGT at 1 new share for every5 CGTs held to release US asset value), or will it be factored into the Motnagne d'Or buyout price? IAG has a strong interest in Maripa's advancement as well. So, there are other parties out there with an interest which could play into Montagne D'Ors development.
However, today it is simply NG get your ... in gear and get the application in. Then it all starts from there.
GLTA -
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