RE:RE:RE:Stock price
Fair question nolalu, and I respect the push to take off what you may see as rose coloured glasses. I'm thinking worst case is: vaccines are not effective resulting in: (1) covid sticking around indefinitely; (2) rolling shutdowns of economies worldwide; (3) travel industry indefintely sidelined. In such case, downside is $2.20, which is where sp languished a few months ago during its darkest days.
Do I see any of this happening? No. Vaccine efficacy has been proven among more than one drug maker. Realistically, worst case for travel industry is a longer than anticipated runway before covid cases subside and before economies are wide open. Personally, I'm fine with this scenario too, maintaining conviction that its just a matter of time before trsvel resumes and travel stocks return to pre-covid prices (look at banks, now at pre-covid prices, and reits, some having returned an dsurpassed pre-covid, others doubling from lows and nearing pre-covid, i.e., both economically sensitive sectors). We've already seen a +50% sp jump in past 2 months, and this is before travel is anywhere close to recovered. Sp drop over past few weeks is to be expected with rising case counts, profit taking, tax loss selling this month. and travel still largely grounded.
I see CHR (and AC and NFI) as relatively safe ways to play the ongoing recovery offering substantial upside (unlike many other sectors that have already recovered). So, while I completely agree that focus must be on downside potential as well as upside, and we should always look to minimize risk, any investment I make is made with both feet in, full on conviction, after having assessed reasons for and against investing. I've been holding CHR for about 4 months now and have made a good paper profit. And I added to holdings this past week convinced that this company has a ways to go, with several potential sp catalysts lined up. GLTA.