2021 Looking real good for Nuvista! Just the Facts.2021 Looking real good for Nuvista! Just the Facts.
Fact: Nuvista paid down $34m in Q3 and are on track to pay down an additional $25m to $30m in Q4. Approx $100m in liquidity to start 2021, and will only spend within cash flow. NVA is not in any liquidity crunch whatsoever, and things are only getting better.
Fact: WTI $38 is Cash Flow breakeven for Nuvisa. At a mere $45 WTI, NVA will grow 10% within cash flow and not increase debt in 2021. WTI higher than $45 they will use that cash flow to pay down debt. $50 WTI in 2021 will bring in roughly $70m FCF to pay down debt . My guess is WTI will be over $50 in short order Q1 and approach $55 mid-year and $60 by end of 2021. I would say paying down $100m in debt in 2021 while still growing at 10% is within reason and sounds like a fairly decent scenario!
Fact: The condensate oil they produce is 2/3 of their $ revenues and is in huge demand for the oil sands to dilute for pipeline transport. Wall Street firms Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley just gave the greenlight to Canadian Oil Sands over U.S. Shale for 2021! Natural Gas $2.50 - $3.00 is just a bonus for Nuvista. Many investors mistakenly believe Nuvista a gas producer (which production in 2/3), but their GOLD lies in the Condensate!
Any suggestion they will be forced to sell out anywhere near current share price is nonsense, and simply won't happen. Nuvista will straightforwardly execute their 2021 plan and be a much stronger company as 2021 progresses.
NVA will survive and thrive, and will NEVER get bought out anywhere near current share price, period!
Sure, the stock is lagging a bit right now, but don’t let that fool you. Short sellers are desperately trying to cover and are doing their darndest to keep it down, but Nuvista will get a rerate soon enough and once it starts to move, they will be rushing to cover.
I encourage people to read through the November 2020 Presentation on the website.