Whats it worth?—a calculated approach When the Ceo said he saw a 35x return, the stock was at a penny. 35 cents post 20:1 rollback equates to $7 a share. There will ultimately be approx 55.5 million shares outstanding post rollback. This equates to $388 million Cdn or $300 million USD. The company is in phase 2 of an orphan designated FDA clinical program. They are awaiting the mid point data which should support positive metrics for patient outcomes. Here we are wondering if the share price will soften post rollback notwitstanding the paltry valuation of $39 million Cdn or the equivalent of $30 million USD.
It seems the CEO was not far off with his bold statement based on a systemic valuation assessment. At current trading levels, a 10x is indicated. The linked bio tech calculator valuation platform should help investors make some level of determination in value attribution.
Interactive tool to calculate the value of a development-stage biotech company or drug.
Risk and value in biotech
Biotech companies can be incredibly valuable even if they are years away from generating revenue. We can't use typical valuation metrics to value pre-revenue biotech companies, but biotech has its own valuation principles. A few of note:
Value is closely tied to risk: In other industries, growth, either of profits, revenues, or users, drives value creation. In drug development, derisking drives value creation. Companies "derisk" their science by conducting scientific experiments or clinical studies. The more rigorous the experiment, the more value is created if the experiment is successful.