RE:Lumpy 13 ;This is a very interesting gold stock and is wide open to investor speculations. Again, bottom line is will the mine application (which seems likely submitted this 1
st quarter) be rewarded? There are varied reasons why it should (past posts), but we cannot rule out some serious delay to such an award (e.g., French simply taking their decision making time, or asking for redo’s in the design, or worse, the very real possibility of NGO challenge in court tying it up for months into years, e.g., look at the history of permitting challenges in the US courts). Even worse, a total denial of the permit, which seems an impossible outcome for OREA enthusiasts (me included); but, it’s out there as a factor to consider.
The OREA investor risks are very real and is why the sp is unlikely to reflect the increasing gold price, which appears to be in an upward trend; maybe more so with the Biden potential for trillions in further debt, if he gains Senate control.
I agree (unfortunately) that NG is likely going to come after OREA’s 45%. Possibly without even waiting for a permit to be awarded, so as to avoid OREA receiving a valid BFS reevaluation of its Montagne d’Or value.
As a 99%+ private company will NG risk US$50 to 100 mill’ (25 – 50 cents on 200 mill shares) to capture potentially 1.25+ mill oz., P&P (around $2.5 bill within ground value at $2,000 per oz., minus build out costs and AISC $800 per oz)? A 1 for maybe 25 times return on buyout money risk.
The NG owner himself is worth apparently $22+ billion according to Forbes. He is flush with new money from the Cardinal Res’ sale and is aiming for a NG return to the public market to take full advantage of that rising gold price. Will there be other public company bidders? How would public boards/shareholders react to buyout risk of this nature? OREA shareholders would have to hope that Chinese state-controlled companies entered the fray or investment companies like the Emirati Russian, Dongshan.
However, IMHO, I hope that Giustra fights off any NG advances before a permit is awarded. Again, at that point a true reevaluation of Montagne d’Or’s OREA value will take place (even if NGO opposition later emerges in court). The OREA sp is likely to reflect this reassessment in a very significant way. Remember with Cardinal Res' all the potential buyers (NG, Shandong, EP and Dongshan) were after a presently non existant mine; no design, no full application process gone through or award made. Montagne d'Or could be very different if OREA lets this all run its course.
I note that the recent announcements by OREA over application progress and court rulings have done little for the sp. Nor do I think the application submission will itself do that much either (although the documents should make very interesting reading for investors). But, the news letter writers, etc., may well become much more interested.
Again, as I have suggested in the past, often the greater money is in the waiting for a mine award, updated BFS and then ongoing build out news (especially in a rising gold price environment). Those wanting to sell out will have IMO opportunities as the sp rises potentially
well above any early NG buyout offer.
We could see both the app’ and award if things go satisfactorily by the end of 2021 leading to a a very significantly improved sp. Play with your own figures to guesstimate all this. Then, cross your fingers and pray the worst case scenario does not occur.
GLTA -
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