My thoughts Good afternoon,
It has been what I would consider a very exciting couple of weeks for SGY. We have legged the market to say the least, however on a percentage bases the movement is not as bad as the few cents seem.
I have seen the comments about needing $2/share in order to break even. I get it, I have bought my shares in the range of $.21 to $8.00. My average is a little better then $2 but I still understand the perspective.
Here are my current thoughts on SGY:
First, the momentum in Oil is behind us and so is OPEC, especially the Saudi’s. With them cutting an extra million barrels for the month of February, I don’t believe we will see an oil price that slips below the $45 mark in the worst of scenarios. I actually feel we will see a range of $49 - $55 in the next couple months. This is very positive for SGY as it is well above their break even mark.
I will say this much; I have enough confidence in the company that I added at $.31 earlier this week around 40,000 shares. Essentially used TFSA limit this year for myself and my spouse.
Second, really nice to see us get an upgrade from a financial institution, it has been a long time since we have seen any updates on SGY from financial institutions especially that reflect a positive upgrade on the company. Very positive sign.
Third, current the oil price SGY is receiving is $51.87 for their average barrel, and I actually believe this number is higher however due to an increase in their production of Alberta Light Oil vs WCS. Hopefully SGY will give us an update in %’s soon, if not I will reach out to their investment relations team. I’m currently using 55% Light / 45% WCS. What has changed in the last couple days is that Oil and USD are moving up together, rare to see, yet extremely positive for Canadian Oil Companies.
What is next?
This month we should get an update on their yearly production projection and how the drilling is going in the Sparky. The Sparky play is the most exciting part of SGY’s portfolio and with the increased drilling with the new money they received I’m expecting we will see a large production increase from the Sparky this year (Alberta Light Oil)
I do believe 2021 is going to be a great year, good luck to all the longs!
Kid