RE:RE:RE:RE:Analyst upgrades are iffyMgmt is one of many factors driving investment. Moreover, it can change. Given the historical Brookfield connection, the status quo is likely on borrowed time. I view that as a positive force.
If I look at the % change for the past 2 years I see:
- IFP: +51%
- CFP: +37%
- WFT: +11%
- RFP: -27%
- WEF: -35%
Some will cite the strike. This may also be a gap that closes if the Q4 earnings exceed expectations. But Q3 earnings were just brutal, so it'll be a major change.
The most pointed criticism is when you compare to peers looking back ~2.5 years or so. Benchmark to roughly the top of the 2018 high point. The thesis is the industry re-hits this and then blows the doors off. 2018 was predicated on OK rates (until they increased out of the blue) and $600 lumber. We are now a brilliant interest rates and at least $700 lumber, with the current being $940 and the long term possibility of running $700+ on a sustained basis. This horrid sumamry looks like this, and has all negative numebrs-- because nobody has caught up to 2018 yet. Yet, some have made up the ground much more effectively than others.
- IFP: -12%
- CFP: -30%
- WFT: -12%
- RFP: -30%
- WEF: -52%
RFP is a different animal that's done remarkable well given their high pulp exposure. Pulp is in the gutter vs. 2018. They also have been taking smart steps which mean I think they're outperforming. I don't compare Conifex to past given the fundamentally different business size either, but the names above are roughly the same as they were back in 2018.
There is no reason why WEF should be the worst of the 2nd list. They don't have the pulp albatross of RFP. They don't have the sneering disdain for shareholders of CFP (e.g. WEF is div friendly). Sure, they're not the rising stars like IFP and WFT, but they should be the next tier down. Mathematically, if they were -20% down from 2018 highs like they would be if they had made better choices, they'd be at $2.24 or so today.