RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:10:30am ESTHaha Wildcat, come on put on your thinking cap please!
I'll spell it out for you.
- US exported ~5 bcf/d of LNG in 2019.
- US exported 5.9 bcf/d of LNG from Jan to Oct 2020.
- This may not seem like a big deal atm, however you must remeber we had covid in Mar - Aug which significantly hurt LNG exports
- EIA forecasts 9.5 Bcf/d in the first quarter of 2021 and 8.5 Bcf/d on an annual basis during 2021.
- US is currently exporting at a run rate of somewhere between 10-11 bcf/d.
- If weather remains cold the first quarter in China/Japan Q1 2021 LNG exports could remain at the 10-11 bcf/d level.
Investors, like yourself apparently, don't understand that LNG is going to have a significant impact on North America natural gas production in 2021. I would call a 5 bcf/d --> 8.5 bcf/d, an increase of 3.5 bcf/d of North American exports pretty significant! And with Asian LNG prices north of $10 you can be sure swing LNG producers in the US are going to do their best to stay closer to the 10-11 bcf/d of LNG exports. I am not going to run you through why reducing storage in the gulf coast helps canadian natural gas as that should be some what obvious. North American natural gas is a lot tighter than folks realize. That coupled with all this new LNG capacity to export means we aren't as disconnected from the world as people think. I am not saying we'll get anything around what Asian spot prices, but a solid $3-$4 gas price is within reach in my opinion. A steady state $3-$4 dollar natural gas price makes AAV worth a whole heck of a lot!