RE:The Ball is in THTX's CourtAnd it really should not be hard at this point to convince the analysts as the phase III is real. It may take the a while for them to get their head around the fact that THTX is a phase III NASH stock, but since this is now undeniable, they will eventually come around. RBC offered lame excuses for not fully acknowledging the reality of the situation, but the analyst is smart enough to know his excuses are lame. That may be why he did not put a sell on the stock when that was clearly called for if he really believes what he said. I am not sure what motivates Brian Abrahms but based on how he had positioned himself thus far with THTX, it is hard to see him ever doing a complete 180 on it and becoming bullish, even at any point in the future. My best guess is he will always be in that spot of giving grudging acknowledgement to any success and digging up theories to question those successes just as he did with this week's announcement. Hopefully, I am wrong about that.
We also have to understand where these analysts are coming from. What THTX has pulled off with the NASH phase III is pretty incredible and almost never happens. The company literally spent almost no money and sponsored no trials in NASH (NIH paid for them thanks to Dr. Grinspoon being interested in Egrifta). Then, they switched from the small HIV NASH market to the huge general NASH market at the last minute. As discussed here many times, they did not have the requisite data the FDA almost always requires to move to a phase III. So, it is not hard to understand why the analysts are having a hard time digesting all that. To them, it is really not fair that THTX is a phase III NASH player. It likely irritates them to some degree that THTX's gambit actually worked. All of that will be reflected in their ratings and price targets. For us shareholders, however, management and the board figured out a way to deliver us a huge gift of being a phase III NASH player without paying the huge price normally required to get there. I might add they also acquired both the marketing rights to Trogarzo and Katana's cancer drug for very minimal sums. While Trogarzo is not what we hoped it would be, the financial returns are still attractive. And NASH and cancer have the potential to be enormous. Our wine drinkers here should send Luc, Philippe and Paul a very nice bottle of wine for their efforts on our behalf! But maybe wait until they manage to convince the analysts that THTX is the next big thing before doing that. Their work is not complete untiil then (I guess Luc's work is commplete so you can send him his bottle!).
New analysts who pick up the stock from here will not have all of that baggage to dela with but will still likely be a bit skeptical too. That is why I do not think THTX can get a full phase III NASH valuation at this point (and maybe not at any point until they have data from their phase III trial). Perhaps the best thing that could come from the consultations with the FDA would be an early look at the phase III data as that might verify to analysts that the drug works just as well, if not better, on non-HIV patients as it did on HIV patients. Until then, THTX's phase III bonafides are just not there and the stock will have a discount becasue of that until the data is available. But even with such a discount, it should still be valued in the double digits just based on NASH. Anything cancer provides will just be a bonus, and it could be quite a considerable bonus. Moreover, there is a very good chance we will know how big that bonus might be before the end of 2021.
Similiar to the Trogarzo situation in the run-up to approval, this board has been well ahead of the analysts. You all deserve a big round of applause for the efforts you made to analyze this stock and its prospects. I am looking forward, however, to the day when the analysts are ahead of us because they finally realize what THTX has pulled off in NASH and what they might soon have in cancer. Hopefully, it will come sooner rather than later. Since the time frame for a fund raising has been pushed out by the later start of the phase III NASH trial, however, we may have to wait a bit longer for new analyst coverage with a more positive perspective to appear. But we know it is coming as the analysts who specialize in NASH cannot ignore a phase III player and if the cancer phase I results are interesting, the company should also attract a new swarm of cancer analysts too. If that cancer data is interesting, management should have no difficulty in attracting favorable analyst coverage as cancer does not have "hair" on it like NASH does. Cancer will sell itself to the analysts.
longterm56 wrote: The waiting for other people and/or institutions is now over ... and what happens from here on is solely in the Thera's court. We are no longer waiting on the NASH experts, the FDA, test results from NIH, papers being published .... it is now all on Thera.
Some say we are waiting on the analysts to get it right, but they have spoken. They might be lazy or ignorant of the details of what Thera has, but that doesn't matter ... the reason their reports are not supportive is because THEY ARE UNCONVINCED ... and the responsibility for changing that is solely on Thera.
So ... Paul ... no pressure ... lol.
-LT