RE:RE:Just to add to the credibility talk Fair analogy and we should be cautious on anything going into humans for the first time. I would point out one interesting difference THTX has too. If I recall, both Taxol and Rubicin are still used a lot in the overall treatment lists for various cancers. So one alternative sign of efficacy is if THTX PDCs are a lot better than just the plain old cytotoxin. If better and safer, you might at least capture that market although pricing would not be quite as high maybe. So maybe not a wonder agent, but just a lot better than one still heavily used.
A lot gets down to the targeting. But you and SPCEO have been correct to keep all excitement in proportion to the still very high risk.
One last interesting thing is we now know how they are planning to do this trial. I hope we can see more of the IND if that's possible, but if they are starting with a small dose, doing a course, looking at efficacy, then moving dose up and repeating, will they have to release what they learn after each course and give data on FAs sage, length, efficacy? I guess what I'm questioning is will this first patient or any of the early dosage optimization patients have to be discussed upon chemo completion as we go along or just discussed once upon completion of dosage trials? To me dosage and efficacy are material but they say it's only dosage info they want. Regardless, there really could be a lot of data and news flow around just dosage optimization. Then you do the proper 40 person trial with a wide angle on types of maladies.
I still need to read that primer on PDCs and ADCs someone posted here (scarlett?).
qwerty22 wrote:
I think this is a good example of why maybe oncology is not a slam dunk but a risky 3 pointer.
https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/news/trial-results/mersana-starts-lose-its-shine
Targeted ovarian cancer using ADC. Interesting to look at that table of data flow at conferences in the article and compare it to SP. The stock jumped to $1billion on the first 20 patients efficacy data in May 2020, steadily grew to ~$2billion and dropped on some troubling data but is still at $1.2 billion. Again no complete responses, tumour shrinkages in 36% of patients and no lasting durability, even a drug related death. They have another ADC program on the go so not all on the shoulders of this but the stock is certainly responding to news flow from this trial.
Bucknelly21 wrote: I will say one thing, Thtx has not taken on anything that seems to have not worked out as far as r&d. Sales clearly not their strong point but gettting projects to the finish line is definitely very much their forte. After yesterday's pr I felt like all the doubts I had about a lot of where they were headed are put to rest. And like spceo and wino ect have pointed out its only a matter of time before that valuation that we all know is right comes to life. It makes me feel that when they play things so close to the chest ie nash and oncology they already have a good idea of where it's heading. I would say you can back the truck up for any price under double digits this year. Oncology will be a home run as Thtx has proven they don't get involved with a project without feeling extremely confident in the outcome as far as dealing with the agencies. Would be nice to see a better reaction to yesterday but it's on its way. I was always agreeing with everyone saying be patient because I was trying to cling onto some hope for this company because I had such a big position relative to my situation. But now I actually really think that this has a good chance to be one of those 5 chances in the market that a person has to really do some damage. Analysis on this board has been pretty spot on, only a matter of time before they run out of Cheetos and have to do some actual work. 2021 is the breakout