RE:WHEN DO WE SEE HERD IMMUNITY .?I don't know but I think the thing is that investors have been prepared to look out across the abyss to a recovery (although I would argue that a recovery in business travel - where AC actually makes their money isn't in the works) to a time when travel is less restrictive and problematic. With good news on that front, the current view gets reinforced BUT with further worsening news and/or delays investor confidence in looking past the abyss will falter - and the share price will reflect that rise in uncertainty.
The Transat transaction is another wildcard with an uncertain outcome and uncertainty as to how the market will respond to it happening or not happening in the short term.
I like the short side trade for the moment - but as always I can change my view at anytime.